Guotai Haitong Securities (GTHT) released a research report stating that OPEC's decision to halt production increases in Q1 2026 has reinforced expectations of a near-term bottom for crude oil prices. According to the OPEC meeting, production will rise by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December as planned, but the group has scrapped its Q1 2026 output hike plan.
Since early April, OPEC has continued to increase production, but the pace has fallen short of expectations, with actual output failing to meet targets. Additionally, OPEC's spare capacity quota has significantly dropped to 3 million bpd, with the majority located in Saudi Arabia, enhancing the organization's ability to manage supply adjustments.
The market interprets OPEC's Q1 2026 production freeze as a neutral-to-bullish signal, providing support for oil prices. On the supply-demand front, Russia's seaborne crude exports have declined, while the U.S. rig count remained flat at 414, below the five-year average.
Demand-side indicators show improved crack spreads, though Q4 inventory buildup pressures are materializing, with floating storage remaining high and onshore stockpiles increasing. Overall, the crude oil market is expected to remain well-supplied in 2026, with demand growth primarily driven by OECD nations. Non-OPEC+ countries are projected to add 2 million bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, with South America as a key contributor.
As OPEC+ regains market share, the group is expected to lead production adjustments to curb further price declines.
**Investment Recommendations**: GTHT maintains its focus on anti-overcapacity strategies and new materials. In the anti-overcapacity segment, stabilizing oil prices and policy catalysts for polyester filament and PTA sectors are expected to boost industry confidence. Ethylene capacity adjustments and PPI recovery prospects also support profit recovery in petrochemicals. Key picks include: - Polyester leaders: **Xinfengming (603225.SH)**, **Tongkun Group (601233.SH)**, **Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ)**, **Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH)**. - Growth plays: **Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ)**, **Baofeng Energy (600989.SH)**. - Long-term value: Undervalued, high-dividend stocks with strong cash flows, such as **CNOOC (600938.SH)**, **PetroChina (601857.SH)**, and **Kunlun Energy (00135.HK)**. - Beneficiaries of downstream trends (e.g., robotics, green plastics): **Juhua Chemical (605166.SH)**, **Wankai New Materials (301216.SZ)**.
**Risks**: Potential global economic downturn and weaker-than-expected downstream demand.