Guosen Securities has released a research report indicating that for the first quarter of 2026, with the finalization of quarterly contract prices, long-term order fulfillment from end-user air conditioning manufacturers remains stable. According to data from BaiChuan YingFu and SCI, prices for R22, R125, and R152a all increased in January 2026. Production scheduling for the first two months of 2026 showed divergence. January's domestic sales scheduling was elevated, influenced by the New Year holiday and some companies front-loading production ahead of the Spring Festival in February. Additionally, the report suggests monitoring the price increases of fluoropolymers against a backdrop of cost support and improving supply-demand dynamics, recommending attention to the price recovery of fluorinated polymers such as PVDF and PTFE. The main views of Guosen Securities are as follows:

**Contract Prices for Major Refrigerants Continue Rising in Q1** Looking at the first quarter, with the confirmation of quarterly contract prices, order execution by terminal air conditioning enterprises is stable. According to SCI, the contract price for R32 is set at 61,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, up 1.66%. The contract price for R410A is set at 55,100 yuan/ton, rising by 1,900 yuan/ton from Q4 2025, a 3.57% increase. Prices for the coming week are projected to be approximately 62,000-63,000 yuan/ton for R32, 55,000-56,000 yuan/ton for R410a, and 56,000-57,000 yuan/ton for R134a.

**R22, R125, and R152a Quoted Prices Increase** According to BaiChuan YingFu and SCI, this month's quoted price for R22 rose to 17,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous month. The quoted price for R134a remained at 58,000 yuan/ton. The quoted price for R125 increased to 48,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from last month. The quoted price for R32 held steady at 62,500 yuan/ton. The quoted price for R410a remained at 54,500 yuan/ton. The quoted price for R152a rose to 28,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous month. The quoted price for R142b was maintained at 28,500 yuan/ton, and the quoted price for R143a remained at 46,000 yuan/ton.

**Divergent Production Scheduling in Early 2026; February Air Conditioning Scheduling Down 31.6% Year-on-Year Due to Spring Festival Timing** Production scheduling for the first two months of 2026 diverged. January's domestic sales scheduling was pushed higher due to the New Year holiday and some companies advancing February's Spring Festival production. February's scheduling for domestic sales of household air conditioners declined, as the timing of the Spring Festival led to adjustments in the production schedule. Companies prioritized ensuring channel inventory before the holiday, which somewhat impacted February's air conditioning production volume. For exports, following the peak overseas Christmas season, a routine restocking cycle began. To avoid delivery delays due to the Spring Festival holiday, some February orders were moved forward to January. February's export market was also affected by the holiday and a high base from the previous year, compounded by some companies shifting overseas orders originally handled by domestic factories to overseas production bases, further impacting domestic export scheduling data. For domestic sales scheduling, according to industry data, February 2026 scheduling was 4.555 million units, down 38.1% year-on-year. For export scheduling, February 2026 scheduling was 6.93 million units, down 26.5% year-on-year.

**Focus on Fluoropolymer Price Increases Supported by Costs and Improving Supply-Demand** For PTFE, rising costs are further solidifying the price floor. On the supply side, overall industry supply is tight, and enterprise inventories are relatively low. On the demand side, pre-holiday stocking intentions persist, creating upward pressure on prices from the supply-demand balance. As of February 5, 2026, prices were: suspension medium-grade 42,000-45,000 yuan/ton, suspension fine powder 45,000-48,000 yuan/ton, dispersion resin 45,000-47,000 yuan/ton, and dispersion emulsion 28,000-30,000 yuan/ton. For PVDF, the market is primarily stable in the short term, with some weakening in upward momentum, but actual transaction prices are gradually converging with quoted prices, leading to a continuous narrowing of the spread. As of February 5, 2026, mainstream quoted prices were: coating-grade PVDF 54,000-60,000 yuan/ton, product-grade PVDF 55,000-60,000 yuan/ton, and lithium battery-grade PVDF 50,000-60,000 yuan/ton.

**Key Fluorochemical News This Month** Juhua Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.54-3.94 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80%-101%. Yonghe Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 530-630 million yuan for 2025, up 111%-151% year-on-year. Sanmei Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99-2.15 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 156%-176% year-on-year.

**Investment Recommendation** With the phasedown of second-generation refrigerants in 2026 and the continuation of the third-generation refrigerant quota system, products like R32, R134a, and R125 benefit from high industry concentration. The inter-conversion ratio among third-generation refrigerant types has increased year-on-year, enhancing production flexibility for enterprises. It is anticipated that major third-generation refrigerants will maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2026. The tightening of refrigerant quota constraints is a long-term trend. In this context, the report is optimistic about the sustained high景气度 of mainstream refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125, expecting significant long-term upside potential for prices. Leading enterprises with substantial refrigerant quotas are expected to maintain high profitability levels over the long term. Furthermore, the report is positive on the demand boost for fluorinated fluids and refrigerants from the liquid cooling industry. It recommends focusing on the price recovery of fluorinated polymers such as PVDF and PTFE. Regarding specific investment targets, the report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with integrated industrial chains, complete infrastructure support, leading refrigerant quotas, and advanced process technology, as well as leading upstream resource companies. Related targets include companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), DONGYUE GROUP (00189), and Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH).

**Risk Warning** Potential risks include weaker-than-expected demand for fluorochemical products; policy risks (such as stricter environmental policies for fluorinated refrigerants, accelerated upgrade processes, changes in quota allocation policies); global trade friction and export obstacles; a downturn in the real estate cycle; slower-than-expected project commissioning schedules for various companies; rising raw material prices; and chemical production safety risks.