Abstract

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund is scheduled to report on February 25, 2026 Pre-Market, and this preview consolidates current-quarter estimates, last-quarter financials, and institutional sentiment to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus and model-based estimates point to revenue of $360.32 million for the current quarter, implying 4.33% year-over-year growth; EBIT is projected at $179.85 million, up 0.46% year-over-year, while adjusted EPS is expected at $0.786, down 7.77% year-over-year. Forecast margin metrics are not explicitly provided, and net profit/margin guidance has not been disclosed.

The main business—interest income from the lending portfolio—remains the primary revenue driver and is expected to maintain stability in accruals, with the overall revenue base tracking a modest year-over-year rise and adjusted EPS reflecting cautious cost discipline. The most promising segment is core interest income, which generated $327.95 million last quarter and is poised to follow the forecast 4.33% year-over-year growth in total revenue given its outsized share of the revenue mix.

Last Quarter Review

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund reported last-quarter revenue of $358.56 million (up 4.47% year-over-year), a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $132.00 million, a net profit margin of 36.94%, and adjusted EPS of $0.82 (down 9.89% year-over-year).

A key highlight was operating performance: EBIT of $193.71 million exceeded the estimate by $13.63 million, a 7.57% beat, underscoring solid execution versus expectations. The main business continued to anchor results, with interest income at $327.95 million and overall revenue rising 4.47% year-over-year, supported by $29.52 million of paid-in-kind interest accruals.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Interest Income and Core Portfolio Earnings

Interest income is the core of Blackstone Secured Lending Fund’s earnings engine and accounted for 91.46% of last quarter’s revenue. The current-quarter revenue estimate of $360.32 million (up 4.33% year-over-year) implies stable portfolio yields and limited volatility in accruals, with EBIT projected to edge up 0.46% year-over-year to $179.85 million. While adjusted EPS is forecast to be $0.786, down 7.77% year-over-year, last quarter’s performance demonstrated better-than-expected operating leverage through an EBIT beat, indicating potential for execution-led outperformance if funding costs and fee headwinds remain contained. The gross margin profile, reported at 100.00% last quarter, reflects the nature of interest accrual accounting and suggests the top line will continue to be dominated by interest collections rather than fee-based revenue. Net profitability was robust last quarter with a 36.94% net margin, and preserving a similar margin trajectory this quarter will depend on credit costs, non-accrual dynamics, and any incremental fee drag. Overall, the base case points to steady core interest earnings, with any divergence likely driven by credit outcomes or one-off portfolio events.

Most Promising Business: Paid-In-Kind Interest as an Earnings Lever

Paid-in-kind (PIK) interest contributed $29.52 million last quarter, representing 8.23% of revenue and offering a secondary lever to net investment income when borrowers opt to capitalize interest. As an accrual component, PIK often tracks overall portfolio activity and total revenue growth; with the current-quarter top line expected to rise 4.33% year-over-year, this accrual stream is likely to follow the broader trend provided borrowers’ performance supports continued accruals. The balance between PIK growth and cash interest collections will be important for near-term EPS dynamics, especially given the projected 7.77% year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS. If portfolio churn, repayments, and new originations sustain interest accruals while credit costs remain contained, PIK can help cushion EPS and EBIT against timing differences in cash flows. Conversely, any uptick in non-accruals would reduce both cash and PIK accruals; last quarter’s margin profile suggests resilience, but the EPS outlook indicates that management and the market are embedding some conservatism. On balance, PIK interest remains a meaningful earnings contributor and a potential source of incremental support to the revenue base if portfolio-level accruals remain durable.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Earnings Quality, Guidance Tone, and Credit Outcomes

The stock’s reaction around the release will likely hinge on the mix of earnings quality versus quantity: a headline revenue increase of 4.33% year-over-year and a stable EBIT print (+0.46% year-over-year) would validate continuity in core earnings, but the EPS trajectory (-7.77% year-over-year) places focus on net investment income after costs. Investors will parse credit metrics—non-accrual levels, realized and unrealized gains/losses, and any changes in risk ratings—since last quarter’s net margin of 36.94% indicates strong profitability that could be sensitive to credit provisioning. Guidance tone on originations, repayments, and portfolio yield will also matter; last quarter’s EBIT beat of 7.57% favored the narrative of operational discipline, and similar signals in the outlook could mitigate the EPS downtick and support valuation. Dividend sustainability relative to adjusted EPS and net investment income coverage may be discussed; while this preview uses the forecast and actuals available, capital allocation commentary could influence sentiment depending on payout alignment with earnings. Institutional ratings skew bullish into the print, which sets a higher bar for positive surprise; the interplay between consensus expectations and actual delivery will be a key determinant of the post-release trajectory. In summary, credit quality disclosures, guidance on portfolio activity and yields, and the alignment of EPS with dividend policy are the principal catalysts expected to drive stock performance in the near term.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional views is bullish, with a ratio of 4:1 in favor of positive opinions versus negative. RBC Capital’s Kenneth Lee has reiterated Buy ratings with price targets of $29.00 and $32.00 in recent coverage windows, emphasizing confidence in earnings power and portfolio discipline. Compass Point’s Casey Alexander has also reiterated Buy ratings, with price targets of $31.50 and $32.00, reflecting expectations for stable core earnings and controlled credit costs. FactSet-based summaries indicate the stock’s average rating characterization as overweight and a mean price target near $29.59, consistent with a constructive stance heading into the quarter. The majority view highlights continuity in interest income, resilience in EBIT even amid a modest EPS decline, and an expectation that portfolio-level accruals will support top-line growth around the 4% range year-over-year. The bullish case centers on cash interest dominance in revenue, PIK interest as a supplementary driver, and the potential for operating discipline to offset cost pressures; delivery against the forecast EPS and revenue metrics, complemented by a steady credit narrative, is seen as sufficient to defend current targets. This collective positioning suggests that, while downside risks exist in credit outcomes and EPS variability, the prevailing institutional framework anticipates a measured, sustainable earnings profile and remains supportive of the shares before the February 25, 2026 Pre-Market release.