Abstract

Privia Health Group, Inc. will release its quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview highlights consensus expectations for revenue, margins, net income and adjusted EPS, along with segment dynamics and the prevailing institutional stance.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to a current-quarter revenue estimate of 565.54 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 21.45%, while adjusted EPS is projected at $0.04 with a year-over-year contraction of 29.54%; the latest forecast also embeds an EBIT estimate of 4.64 million, down 24.01% year-over-year. Gross profit margin and net profit margin are not explicitly guided for this quarter; focus will remain on how revenue mix and value-based care contributions influence margins and earnings versus these forecasts. The core revenue engine is expected to be driven by patient service fees and related administrative services, with attention on sequential normalization after a strong prior quarter and disciplined cost execution to protect margin. The most promising segment remains shared savings tied to the Medicare Shared Savings Program, underpinned by performance-year results showing a 32.00% year-over-year increase in savings, supporting momentum for the company’s value-based economics and future revenue capture.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Privia Health Group, Inc. reported revenue of 940.40 million, a gross profit margin of 10.99%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.86 million, a net profit margin of 1.18%, and adjusted EPS of $0.05; revenue rose 27.10% year-over-year and adjusted EPS increased 66.67% year-over-year. A key financial highlight was a substantial top-line beat, with revenue outpacing the prior estimate by 158.45 million, signaling strong performance across value-based and fee-for-service components. Main business highlights included 79.99 million from shared savings, with performance-year data indicating a 32.00% year-over-year increase in savings, alongside patient service fees and capitation contributions that reinforced the scale of the platform.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Patient service fees and administrative services

Patient service fees remain the anchor of Privia Health Group, Inc.’s model, contributing 352.60 million last quarter, complemented by administrative services at 33.62 million and capitation revenue at 90.91 million. The current-quarter revenue estimate of 565.54 million implies a notable sequential step-down from 940.40 million, pointing to seasonal dynamics and lapping of value-based revenue timing, while still reflecting a durable fee-for-service base. With gross profit margin and net profit margin not guided for the quarter, the near-term monitoring focus will be on pricing discipline, care delivery mix, and controllable cost levers (e.g., technology-enabled workflows and centralized back-office) to preserve margin quality against lower top-line volume. Fee-for-service utilization trends and site-of-service optimization should continue to support consistent cash generation, though the year-over-year decline in revenue signals that the cadence and timing of shared savings and other value-based inflows will shape earnings conversion in the quarter.

Most promising segment: Shared savings and value-based care economics

Shared savings accounted for 79.99 million last quarter and is poised as a key strategic growth lever given the demonstrated performance: Privia’s Accountable Care Organizations delivered more than 233.00 million in total savings in the 2024 performance year of the Medicare Shared Savings Program, a 32.00% year-over-year increase. That performance-year trajectory reinforces the scalability of Privia’s physician enablement model, where improved care coordination, risk stratification, and quality metrics can translate into outsized value-based remuneration over-time. While the current quarter’s aggregate revenue is forecast to decline year-over-year, the structural strengthening of shared savings outcomes suggests multi-period tailwinds to earnings quality and capital efficiency, even if the quarterly recognition of such revenue is uneven. Continued execution on panel management, risk scoring integrity, and data-driven care pathways should support reliable capture of upside in value-based arrangements and help offset cyclicality in fee-for-service volumes.

Stock price drivers this quarter

Investors will be attuned to delivery versus consensus on the 565.54 million revenue estimate and $0.04 adjusted EPS projection, given the implied 21.45% and 29.54% year-over-year declines, respectively. A key swing factor is the composition of revenue across patient service fees, capitation, shared savings, administrative services, and care management fees: mix shifts can meaningfully influence consolidated margins and earnings power. The prior quarter’s revenue beat of 158.45 million sets a high bar, and the degree to which top-line normalization aligns with management’s value-based cadence will likely shape sentiment; upside could come from stronger-than-expected shared savings or capitation inflows, while downside risk would be softer utilization or slower recognition of value-based payments. The market is likely to also parse any updates on adjusted EBITDA run-rate and performance-year savings conversion, as historical momentum in savings (up 32.00% year-over-year for 2024) provides a framework for future earnings leverage even if this quarter’s headline revenue is lower year-over-year. Operational updates around practice expansion, payer collaborations, and technology adoption within the physician network could further color expectations for margin resilience through the quarter.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary skews bullish, with buy-rated calls outnumbering neutral stances; among recognizable names, analysts at Truist Financial, Evercore ISI, and Leerink Partners have reiterated buy views, while Barclays and Bank of America Securities maintained hold ratings, leaving constructive opinions in the majority. The bullish camp has emphasized the durability of Privia Health Group, Inc.’s enablement model and the expanding value-based economics evidenced by performance-year savings growth, framing near-term quarter-to-quarter variability against longer-run earnings conversion. Analysts cite the company’s continuing ability to translate scale into improved savings performance and a clearer path to EBITDA uplift, recognizing recent guidance context that underscored confidence in operating leverage as shared savings and capitation mature. The buy-side analysis generally acknowledges that a year-over-year decline in the current-quarter revenue and EPS estimates does not undermine the trajectory of value creation, provided execution remains consistent in physician engagement, risk adjustment accuracy, and quality outcomes. In this lens, the prevailing view expects management to navigate the sequential normalization with disciplined cost control, protect gross margin integrity through mix optimization, and set the stage for more favorable multi-quarter comparisons as shared savings and risk-bearing programs cycle through their recognition timeline. The result is a majority-bullish stance that prices near-term softness in consensus estimates against a strengthening structural backdrop in value-based care contributions and sustained platform productivity.