Morgan Stanley Maintains Positive Outlook on Insurers' Full-Year Performance, Eyes Strong Start to Next Year

Stock News
Nov 03

Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the insurers under its coverage posted robust net profits and life insurance sales growth in Q3, with AIA (01299) and PING AN (02318) both exceeding expectations. The firm maintains a positive view on the sector's full-year performance and highlights early-year sales momentum in 2024 as a key driver to monitor closely.

The report noted that all major insurers achieved exceptional quarterly profit growth despite high base effects, benefiting from improved equity markets and higher equity allocations. However, this was largely anticipated as most insurers had already issued profit alerts. Annualized total investment yields exceeded 6% across the board, while net investment yields declined to around 3.5%.

Book value trends were encouraging, with PING AN and CPIC (02601) reporting 9% and 8% growth in post-tax operating profits, respectively. However, industry capital levels dipped due to continued reductions in risk discount rates and increased equity exposure, though capital positions remained relatively satisfactory.

Q3 life insurance sales remained strong, driven by elevated bancassurance growth and demand ahead of insurers' pricing rate cuts. Most players achieved both higher annualized premium income and margins, with accelerated new business value growth. Agent headcount stabilized, product quality improved, and the proportion of participating products increased.

In property and casualty insurance, broad-based improvements were seen in the first three quarters, with most insurers reporting combined ratios declining by 0.5 to 2.1 percentage points to a healthy range of 96.1%-97.6%.

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