BofA Securities: Aluminum Firms to Benefit from Power Cost Advantage; Raises Earnings Forecasts and Price Targets for CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) and CHALCO (02600)

Stock News
Nov 11

BofA Securities released a research report stating that Chinese aluminum companies hold a significant advantage in power costs, with electricity prices in China being 20% lower than in India and 30%-60% lower than in the U.S. and Europe. This could reduce production costs by RMB 1,200 to 3,600 per ton. While overseas markets face power shortages and rising electricity prices, China maintains ample power supply. The bank expects this cost advantage to widen in the coming years. With China's aluminum supply already at its upper limit of 45 million tons, high global production costs are likely to support Chinese aluminum prices and drive margin expansion for companies from 2025 to 2027.

BofA Securities raised its 2026–2030 earnings forecasts for CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) by 5%-14% and increased the target price from HK$35 to HK$38, reiterating a "Buy" rating. Similarly, the bank lifted its 2024–2025 earnings estimates for CHALCO (02600) by 1% and 27%, respectively, raising the target price from HK$10 to HK$11.9 and maintaining a "Buy" rating. The report highlights the attractive valuation of the aluminum sector, driven by themes such as AI and data center development.

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