The rapid surge in lithium carbonate futures is shifting the lithium industry's trading framework from "current oversupply" to a pricing logic centered on "future tightness." Expectations of rising lithium price benchmarks are heating up due to capital expenditure cuts and project delays on the supply side, coupled with accelerating demand for energy storage. The financial attributes dominated by futures have amplified the slope and volatility of this process. On the 24th, the main lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 11% to 164,900 yuan per ton, with concentrated pricing in the futures market becoming the most direct signal.

From a price level perspective, this figure has now entered the core range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton for 2026, as forecast in a February 22 research report by Yu Jiayi's team at Orient Securities, reinforcing market consensus that "2026 is the inflection point year." Orient Securities emphasized in its report that the sequence of a lithium market rally is typically "stocks → futures → spot," with the expected inflection point often leading the fundamental turning point. The current spike in futures suggests that future supply-demand dynamics and policy variables are being priced in early, which may further influence spot procurement rhythms and inventory decisions. Futures Lead the Ignition, Amplifying Lithium's Financial Volatility Orient Securities pointed out that since the launch of lithium carbonate futures in 2023, the financial attributes of the lithium industry have significantly strengthened. Price formation is no longer solely determined by spot supply and demand but is increasingly influenced by capital market expectations, risk appetite, and hedging activities. This change is supported by clear "infrastructure." The report indicates that the lithium carbonate futures delivery system continues to expand, with a notable increase in participants engaging in hedging. The number of lithium battery listed companies disclosing lithium carbonate futures hedging rose from 23 in 2023 to 71 in H1 2025, while the持仓率 of general corporate clients increased from 18.50% to 49.63%. Within this framework, futures more readily become a concentrated outlet for changing expectations, transmitting to spot prices through hedging and trade pricing.

Supply: Low CAPEX Coupled with Approval Delays Limit "Effective Increments" A key change on the supply side is the "secondary suppression" of capital expenditure by falling prices. Orient Securities believes that the lithium price decline over the past two years has significantly compressed global lithium resource capital expenditure, with core lithium producers' CAPEX entering a cyclical low. Their calculations show that global lithium resource capacity growth in 2024-2025 is only 17.1%, with effective capacity growth expected to remain at 20%-25% for 2026-2027. The potential for releasable increments is relatively limited, making a sudden surge in supply pressure unlikely. Concurrently, some existing and new projects domestically and internationally are facing disruptions due to policy and other factors, lengthening approval and construction timelines and creating structural delays in the supply system. The report mentions that the new "Mineral Resources Law," effective July 1, 2025, coupled with stricter mine permit reviews in regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, increases uncertainty regarding the realization of domestic supply. Regarding incremental supply estimates, Orient Securities forecasts a net new supply of approximately 448,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, primarily from new project ramp-ups. Mining permits and ramp-up progress remain key variables. They also note a time lag in supply elasticity, estimating that about 35% of 2026 supply could be released within approximately 3 months, with the rest more dependent on new project ramp-ups, offering limited short-term relief to supply-demand dynamics. Demand: Energy Storage Emerges as the Second Engine, Structural Upward Revisions Dominate Expectations The key variable on the demand side is energy storage. Orient Securities projects global direct lithium demand of about 1.94 million tonnes LCE in 2026. Energy storage demand is entering a phase of accelerated expansion, with full-year demand expected to reach approximately 570,000 tonnes LCE, representing a year-on-year growth rate of about 55%. Its share of total demand is expected to rise to nearly 30% and potentially exceed 30% after 2026, making it a core demand sector second only to power batteries. This growth is driven by the expansion of wind and solar power installations, grid upgrades, and increased reliance on electrochemical storage for AI-related infrastructure development. The report also forecasts global new energy storage installations to reach about 900 GWh in 2026. For power batteries, lithium demand is projected at 1.15 million tonnes LCE in 2026, up 24% year-on-year, with global new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 25.58 million units.

Price: Shift from "Current Oversupply" to "Future Tightness," Higher Benchmarks with Greater Elasticity Orient Securities judges that the lithium industry completed a phased bottoming process in 2025 and has entered an upward inflection point. The essence of this shift is not merely a rebalancing of supply and demand, but a change in pricing logic from trading current oversupply to trading future scarcity. On the inventory front, the report indicates a destocking inflection point gradually emerged in H2 2025, with lithium carbonate inventories decreasing from approximately 138,000 tonnes in mid-September to about 110,000 tonnes by late December. Concurrently, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices provided a leading signal for the rise in lithium carbonate prices. Regarding the price outlook, Orient Securities expects the lithium carbonate price to fluctuate within a range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per tonne in 2026. They caution that, against a backdrop of relatively tight supply-demand conditions and potential periodic restocking, prices could potentially rise towards higher ranges, but "absolute peaks may be difficult to replicate" compared to historical extremes. Their scenario analysis shows that price increases trigger supply elasticity: at 70,000-90,000 yuan/tonne, 2026 supply would be 2.041 million tonnes LCE against real demand (considering restocking) of 2.091 million tonnes LCE, indicating a deficit. At 90,000-120,000 yuan/tonne, supply increases to 2.170 million tonnes LCE, leading to a balanced or slightly loose market. At 120,000-150,000 yuan/tonne, supply could reach 2.349 million tonnes LCE, expanding the surplus. According to a previous article, UBS significantly raised its 2026 spodumene price forecast by 74% to $3,131 per tonne and its lithium carbonate forecast to $26,000 per tonne. This revision is based on achieving "triple parity" for electric vehicles and a surge in energy storage demand, projecting global demand to double to 3.4 million tonnes by 2030. UBS believes the market has entered a third lithium super-cycle, with persistent supply-demand deficits supporting prices significantly above market consensus. Geopolitics and Policy: "Critical Mineral" Status Provides an Additional "Option" Orient Securities suggests looking "beyond baseline supply and demand" to account for an "option premium," reasoning that lithium, alongside nickel and cobalt, is listed as a critical mineral by China, the US, and the EU. Policy adjustments in resource countries, strategic stockpiling actions, and proactive inventory building within the supply chain could amplify the market's pricing of scarcity. The report lists several policy and geopolitical variables, including Chile's push for mineral nationalization potentially reducing Tianqi Lithium's equity resource share in SQM (estimated around 37%), Mexico classifying lithium as a strategic mineral and prohibiting concessions to private entities, and Canada strengthening reviews of foreign investment in critical minerals. In North America, Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC) stated that the US Department of Energy acquired a 5% stake in the company and a 5% interest in the Thacker Pass project, a move Reuters highlighted as underscoring proactive efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains.