Since June this year, multiple European countries have experienced sustained high temperatures, with many regions seeing temperatures exceed 40°C, leading to explosive growth in market demand for air conditioners and fans. According to reports, Guangdong's air conditioner and fan orders have surged with strong overseas sales performance.
Data shows that in the first seven months of this year, Zhongshan city exported air conditioners worth 24.8 billion yuan to Europe, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.8%. A company in Shunde, Guangdong, while developing the European market, has also intensified efforts to expand into African and Middle Eastern markets. Recently, the company successfully secured orders for 70,000 air conditioning units for Dubai. From January to July this year, the company exported a total of 300,000 air conditioning units to African and Middle Eastern markets.
Recently released customs data shows that building on last year's high base, China's cumulative air conditioner export value reached $9.35 billion from January to June this year, a year-on-year increase of nearly 10%. Among these, air conditioner export volumes to EU countries increased by 43.2% year-on-year, with export value reaching $3.76 billion, setting a new historical high for the same period.
CITIC Securities research report indicates that with government subsidy funds being allocated, the home appliance industry maintains high prosperity, favoring investment opportunities in leading companies. Summer high temperatures drive strong growth in air conditioner demand, structural upgrades in black appliance products boost average selling prices, while declining panel prices and marginal improvements in robotic vacuum cleaner industry competition suggest profit margins may reach an inflection point. Changes in e-commerce advertising tax rules benefit leading brands, two-wheeler sales see strong growth driven by government subsidies, and motorcycles accelerate overseas expansion. Leading companies across all segments benefit from high industry prosperity, showing strong market share and profit margin performance, with expectations for steady second and third quarter results and optimistic outlook for future performance of leading enterprises.
CICC research report states that according to Baiinfo data, 1H25 refrigerant R32/R134a/R125 production reached 138,000/76,000/57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%/37%/34% of annual quotas. With the new cooling year for air conditioners approaching at the end of August, although air conditioner production has declined since July, terminal consumption continues to rise. Combined with current sales trends, air conditioner production is expected to remain at high levels entering the new cooling year, potentially boosting refrigerant demand. With stable policy expectations for mid-2025 and 2026, refrigerant prices continue their off-season upward trend, new cooling year air conditioner demand is expected to remain strong, market expectations may gradually improve, and sector valuations are likely to see recovery.
Air conditioning-related Hong Kong concept stocks: MIDEA GROUP (00300), HAIER SMARTHOME (06690), HISENSE HA (00921), Xiaomi Corporation-W (01810)
Refrigerant-related: Dongyue Group (00189)