Good morning. International markets saw sharp swings overnight, with oil prices fluctuating violently in early trading.

According to media reports in the early hours of this morning, U.S. officials said Washington continues to hold active discussions with Iran through intermediary channels, warning that no agreement will be reached unless the nuclear issue is resolved. U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and unfreeze its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the Iranian nuclear issue. As a result, international oil prices plunged, with WTI crude falling 0.08% after earlier rising more than 4%, while Brent crude dropped 0.07% after gaining nearly 4%.

Saudi media later reported that Iran had agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for the U.S. easing sanctions, pushing Brent and WTI losses to widen to 1%. However, Trump denied reports that he had offered sanctions relief or frozen fund releases to Iran. Some Iranian officials also said a series of media reports claiming Iran showed flexibility on its nuclear stance were untrue.

Three other developments also deserve attention.

First, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Monday that productivity gains from artificial intelligence cannot offset short-term inflationary pressure in time. AI's role in the Fed's policy framework is reversing, from a hoped-for "case for rate cuts" to a "case for hikes" supporting tightening. Cook said large-scale data center investment has pushed up electricity and water costs by about 5%; of the $2 trillion in AI capital expenditure pledged by companies, only a small fraction has been spent so far, and the arrival of remaining funds will intensify price pressure. The AI-driven stock market wealth effect is stimulating consumption, further offsetting the mild disinflationary effect of productivity gains.

Second, OpenAI has cancelled the scheduled release of GPT-6.1 Astra. According to reports, OpenAI has scrapped plans to launch its latest AI model, GPT-6.1 Astra, originally set for October this year. Saachi Jain, the company's executive in charge of safety systems, said GPT-6.1 Astra does not always truthfully inform users about actions it has or has not taken during internal testing, and also proceeds with tasks without user permission.

Third, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that a significant rise in long-term interest rates will slow economic growth and dampen the transmission of energy prices to overall inflation to a greater extent than the ECB projected in September. She stressed that the ECB should take "measured action" to control inflation.

At the close, WTI crude futures rose 0.21% to $92.6 per barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 0.92% to $105.28 per barrel.

In U.S. equities, the three major indexes closed lower across the board, with the Nasdaq down 0.92%, the S&P 500 down 0.77% and the Dow down 0.67%. Optical communications and memory chip sectors led declines, with Arm plunging over 8%, Qualcomm dropping more than 7%, Intel and SK Hynix falling over 5%, and Meta and Coherent dropping more than 4%. SanDisk, AMD and Marvell Technology each fell over 3%. Gold miners fell broadly, with Gold Fields down more than 12%, Harmony Gold down over 6%, Eldorado Gold down more than 5%, Newmont and Pan American Silver down over 4%, and Kinross Gold down more than 3%. Nvidia rose more than 1% after announcing it would increase its share buyback authorization by $150 billion. MongoDB Inc. tumbled more than 18%, its worst single-day performance since March.

In precious metals, COMEX gold futures fell 4% to $4,148.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures dropped 5.82% to $61.03 per ounce.

Trump says U.S. officials spoke with mediators between Washington and Tehran on the 28th

According to CCTV News, Trump said on September 28 local time that U.S. officials held talks that day with mediators aimed at ending the U.S.-Iran conflict. Asked about the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, Trump did not disclose specifics, saying only "we will win" and "things will be clear very soon." Earlier that day, a report cited an official familiar with the talks as saying the U.S. and Iran were expected to hold another round of talks through mediators on the 28th or 29th. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Qatari mediators are currently in the U.S., and the talks are expected to focus on revising Iran's proposal, raised during the UN General Assembly, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Other U.S. sources indicated that indirect U.S.-Iran talks began on the morning of the 28th. Earlier Iranian reports said Araghchi would lead an Iranian delegation to meet U.S.-Iran negotiation mediators in New York on the morning of the 28th to discuss the latest proposals on the current situation.

Mojtaba says enemy will be driven out of the Arabian Sea

According to CCTV International, on September 28, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a statement on the occasion of Iran's National Defense Week and the second anniversary of the killing of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The statement noted that in the seven months since the war began, Iranians have supported the country with a responsible attitude, and more than 30 million people have expressed determination to sacrifice for the nation, which has boosted military morale. Iran's performance has "struck fear into the enemy" — the enemy once sought to gradually dismantle Iran, but now all sectors of society are firmly defending Iran's legitimate position, and the enemy's intentions will not succeed. Hezbollah will continue to resist, and Iran and the regional resistance front will achieve final victory, while the enemy will suffer defeat and humiliation. Mojtaba Khamenei's social media account said the same day that Iran's armed forces have pushed enemy forces back from the southern waters off Iran to the Arabian Sea, and will soon drive them out of the Arabian Sea.

Will gold and silver prices fall further?

"The pullback in gold and silver prices is the result of a combination of geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds," Xiao Jingyu, a precious metals analyst at Xinhu Futures, told Futures Daily. On one hand, U.S.-Iran talks are at an impasse, Brent crude has returned above $100 per barrel, and inflation concerns continue to build, weighing on gold and silver. On the other hand, recent U.S. economic data has shown strong resilience. Last week's preliminary September manufacturing and services PMI, August new home sales and durable goods orders all beat expectations, and with Fed officials密集 striking a hawkish tone, the market has begun trading the "higher for longer" scenario. As a result, the dollar index has risen and U.S. Treasury yields have hit a阶段性 high, bearish for precious metals.

Xiao also noted that the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has risen above 70%, and the chance of another hike in December has exceeded 50%, as the market reprices the Fed's policy path. Cong Shanshan, a precious metals analyst at Huishang Futures, also believes the core reason for the decline in gold and silver is rising rate hike expectations. The market is now highly focused on core U.S. data such as inflation and employment, and data fluctuations directly disturb Fed policy expectations, becoming the core driver of short-term gold and silver price swings.

Looking ahead, Xiao believes that in the short term, bullish factors for precious metals are relatively limited, and focus can be placed on the support levels for spot gold and silver around $4,000 per ounce and $60 per ounce. In the medium term, the Fed is likely to hike rates once more this year, but the market's pricing of another December hike is too aggressive, leaving room for a corrective rebound in precious metals.

"In the short term, precious metals will continue to trade in a weak, range-bound manner, lacking trend upward momentum before rate hike expectations cool, with prices repeatedly switching direction based on Fed policy signals, the dollar and Treasury yields," Cong said. If U.S.-Iran talks make progress and oil prices fall, cooling rate hike expectations will drive an oversold rebound in gold and silver; if Middle East conflict escalates and inflation data rises, further declines cannot be ruled out. During the long holiday, overseas data and Fed official speeches will be密集, bringing more external disturbances, so it is advisable to hold light positions over the holiday.

In the medium to long term, Cong believes the core support logic for precious metals has not changed. Global central banks continue to increase gold holdings, and the ongoing diversification of the global monetary system provides solid bottom support for gold prices, while the safe-haven and allocation value of precious metals remains over the long term.