Key headlines from global financial media overnight and this morning include:
1. Fragile US-Iran Truce in Peril: Iran Launches Missiles in Response to Trump's "Pilot Program," UAE Issues Safety Alert, Oil Prices Swing Violently 2. Lebanese President Declines Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Until Attacks Cease 3. Prediction Platform Kalshi: Elon Musk Faces Slim Odds of Winning Lawsuit Against OpenAI 4. Meme Stock GameStop Proposes $56 Billion Takeover of eBay, a Deal Nearly Four Times Its Size 5. US 30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5% as Soaring Oil Prices Fuel Bets on Rate Hikes 6. New York Fed President: Interest Rates Will Need to Be Cut at Some Point, No Data Supports a Near-Term Increase
The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran was thrown into crisis on Monday after both sides launched attacks, just hours after US President Trump announced a new plan aimed at breaking the stalemate over control of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to a new US "pilot program" to guide ships through the strategic waterway, Iran said it fired warning shots near a US Navy vessel. A semi-official Iranian news agency even claimed an Iranian missile had struck a US frigate. A US Navy rear admiral revealed that American forces subsequently retaliated, destroying at least six Iranian small boats. US Central Command added that two US-flagged vessels had successfully transited the strait.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates stated it had come under attack from Iran and warned citizens to "immediately head to the nearest safe building." A South Korean cargo ship was also suspected of being attacked by Iran. Crude oil prices experienced sharp volatility on Monday due to conflict fears sparked by these rapid developments.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun stated on Monday that he would not hold a face-to-face meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu until Israel stops its attacks on Lebanon. Aoun said, "The timing is not ripe for a meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Before raising the issue of a meeting, we must first reach a security agreement and stop the Israeli attacks on us." However, he added, "The path of negotiation is irreversible because we have no other choice."
Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi indicate that the probability of Elon Musk winning his lawsuit against OpenAI is only about 36%, the lowest expectation since the trial began in Oakland, California a week ago. The billionaire sued OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman in 2024, alleging they breached an agreement by failing to maintain the company's nonprofit status. On Thursday, OpenAI's lawyers cross-examined Musk, questioning him about the profit cap on Microsoft's investment in OpenAI, his involvement in negotiations over the company's structure, and his knowledge of recent actions by OpenAI's nonprofit arm. Musk responded that he was not aware of OpenAI's recent internal developments.
GameStop Corp. is attempting a cash-and-stock acquisition of eBay Inc. valued at approximately $56 billion, a bold move by Ryan Cohen to take over a established e-commerce company several times its size. The video game retailer proposed acquiring the online marketplace for $125 per share in cash and stock, a premium of about 20% to its Friday closing price. GameStop, which holds about a 5% stake in eBay, has obtained a preliminary, non-binding "highly confident letter" from TD Bank to provide approximately $20 billion in debt financing for the deal. In a memo to investors, GameStop pledged to achieve annual cost savings of about $2 billion within 12 months of the deal's completion. eBay said on Monday it would evaluate the proposal, "focusing on the value for eBay shareholders, including the value of the GameStop stock consideration, and its ability to present a binding, enforceable proposal." eBay's shares in New York rose as much as 7% on Monday, their biggest gain since July 2025. As of 10:44 AM New York time, the stock was up 5.4% at $109.69, still significantly below the offer price, indicating investors see hurdles to the deal's completion. GameStop's stock fell approximately 5.2%.
US Treasury prices fell, pushing the 30-year yield to its highest level since July. Traders increased bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes as oil prices surged. Yields rose by at least 7 basis points across the curve on Monday, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.03%. The two-year yield, highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, jumped as much as 11 basis points to 3.99%. Interest rate swaps now imply about an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike by the end of April 2027. This contrasts sharply with expectations just before the Iran conflict erupted in late February, when markets were pricing in a series of rate cuts. Brent crude prices surged sharply on Monday following renewed attacks on key energy infrastructure and tankers in the Middle East. Elevated oil prices have become a primary driver of global bond yield movements, altering the inflation outlook and causing traders to abandon predictions of Fed rate cuts this year.
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated that interest rates will need to be reduced "at some point" if inflation declines towards the Fed's 2% target as expected. Speaking to reporters after a speech in New York on Monday, Williams said, "At some point we'll need to cut interest rates to reflect the fact that inflation is coming down. Inflation this year has been higher than previously expected, which has pushed back the timing of rate cuts, but it hasn't changed this basic assessment." The Fed held rates steady last week, but three officials dissented from the post-meeting statement's "easing bias," arguing it should signal that the next move could be either up or down. Williams told reporters he was "very comfortable" with the current wording of the rate statement because he "doesn't see any daily data" suggesting a reason to hike rates in the near term.