Abstract

Banco Macro SA will report quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Post Market; this preview highlights guidance signals from management disclosures, consensus-style model estimates for revenue, EBIT and EPS, and key catalysts including payments expansion and capital actions.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest compiled estimates for the current quarter, Banco Macro SA’s revenue is projected at 638.18 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 14.97%; EBIT is estimated at 339.31 million with a 3.12% year-over-year contraction, while EPS is projected at 1.05 with a 52.34% year-over-year decline. Forecast gross profit margin and net profit margin are not disclosed in the model extracts for this quarter.

The main business remains traditional banking, with operating momentum hinging on balance-sheet repricing and fee income resilience amid an evolving macro backdrop. The most promising near-term segment comes from payments and digital services, supported by a recently announced 75.00 million investment to acquire a 50% stake in Micro Sistemas, which is poised to bolster non-interest revenue growth; year-over-year contribution will be tracked post-closing and regulatory approvals.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Banco Macro SA delivered EPS of 2.03, EBIT of 390.35 million with 248.80% year-over-year growth, and reported a GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -33.10 billion alongside a net profit margin of -4.25%; gross profit margin was not disclosed. Quarter-on-quarter, net profit to the parent declined by 120.57%.

A notable financial development was the significant EPS outperformance versus estimate (2.03 actual vs. 1.99 estimated), reinforcing the company’s ability to navigate volatile conditions. By business line, the company’s main banking business accounted for 779.13 billion in revenue last quarter; detailed year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Banking Franchise

The core banking franchise remains the focal point for profitability this quarter. With revenue estimated at 638.18 million and EBIT at 339.31 million, the model suggests pressure on top-line due to a 14.97% year-over-year decline, while operating earnings are also set to soften modestly by 3.12% year-over-year. The interplay between loan repricing and funding costs will be central to reported net interest dynamics, especially as margin prints can be sensitive to macro volatility and accounting effects. Management’s ability to steer deposit mix and duration, while maintaining asset quality discipline, is likely to determine whether earnings land closer to the upper or lower bound of expectations.

On fees and commissions, stability in payment services, cards, and transactional banking would help offset net interest headwinds. Given the reported negative net profit margin last quarter (-4.25%) and a steep quarter-on-quarter change in parent net profit (-120.57%), investors will look for clearer normalization signals in bottom-line metrics. If operating costs remain contained and credit cost trends stay benign, the gap between EBIT performance and net profit could narrow as one-off items fade, improving earnings quality.

Payments and Digital Services Expansion

The company’s announced 75.00 million investment for a 50% stake in Micro Sistemas, a payment service provider, adds a new vector for fee-based income and ecosystem engagement. This move positions the bank to capture merchant acquiring, wallet activity, and value-added services that can scale with user adoption. While the transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and thus not fully reflected in this quarter’s revenue, the setup offers an incremental earnings lever less correlated with traditional spread income.

Over the near term, integration milestones, product bundling with existing retail channels, and merchant onboarding will be the practical catalysts to watch. As digital volumes ramp, unit economics typically improve via operating leverage, which could mitigate margin pressure elsewhere in the P&L. Given the lack of disclosed year-over-year segment growth data, investors should track run-rate indicators such as payment volumes, active users, and take-rates once the business is consolidated, as these will frame the magnitude and timing of earnings contribution.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s reaction is likely to hinge on three variables: headline EPS delivery versus the 1.05 estimate, revenue trajectory versus the 638.18 million projection, and qualitative guidance on margin normalization after last quarter’s negative net profit margin. A clear bridge from EBIT to net income, including commentary on non-recurring items and regulatory or macro adjustments, would help the market assess run-rate profitability. Any evidence that fee income is holding up or that cost efficiencies are tracking to plan could be supportive for sentiment, particularly in light of the year-over-year declines embedded in estimates.

Corporate actions are another swing factor. The company executed a dividend distribution with an ex-date in January 2026, which may influence quarterly capital ratios and investor perception of payout sustainability. While dividend cash flows are modest relative to total capital, reiteration of a consistent capital return framework—balanced with growth investments like the Micro Sistemas stake—could help frame valuation. Finally, disclosure around asset quality metrics, such as non-performing loans and coverage levels, will be monitored closely; even small shifts can meaningfully affect equity narratives when earnings visibility is tight.

Analyst Opinions

Within the January 1, 2026 to February 18, 2026 window, published analyst previews and ratings identifiable in public channels are limited. The majority of commentary observed in this period centers on corporate developments and capital actions rather than explicit earnings previews with stance calls. Among the identifiable institutional viewpoints in early 2026, a cautious-but-constructive framing emerges: the payments investment is viewed as an incremental positive for fee income durability, while near-term forecasts embed prudent declines in revenue and EPS that could be beatable if operating costs and credit metrics surprise favorably.

We categorize the prevailing tone during this window as leaning constructive rather than negative, given: the execution of shareholder distributions in January 2026, which implies confidence in capital resilience; the strategic pivot into payments, which can diversify revenue; and the fact that model estimates already contemplate a 14.97% revenue decline and a 52.34% EPS contraction, potentially setting a bar that management may address with operational updates. The lack of explicit bearish previews in the period means the balance of published views trends toward mildly bullish in expectations, though with clear recognition of macro sensitivity and margin volatility. Investors should weigh the potential for upside from fee expansion and operating efficiency against the near-term top-line and EPS headwinds embedded in forecasts as they position ahead of February 25, 2026 Post Market results.