Abstract

Matador Resources is scheduled to report quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue, margins, and EPS trends as commodity prices and volume mix shape performance.

Market Forecast

- Based on current-quarter forecasts, Matador Resources’ revenue is estimated at $803.05 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 16.98%. Forecast EBIT is $211.26 million with an estimated year-over-year decline of 42.86%, and forecast EPS is $0.83 with an estimated year-over-year decline of 51.95%. - Margin expectations are mixed: the previous quarter’s gross profit margin was 73.47% and net profit margin was 20.69%, and markets will watch whether realized pricing and differentials compress those levels; the company’s forecast did not explicitly provide margins for the current quarter. - Main business outlook: oil and natural gas production remains the core revenue driver, with continued focus on drilling and completion cadence and well productivity to help offset commodity price headwinds. - Most promising segment: third-party midstream services continue to present a growing fee-based opportunity; although a smaller base at $43.83 million last quarter, it provides more stable cash flows and potential year-over-year expansion as throughput ramps.

Last Quarter Review

- Matador Resources posted revenue of $939.02 million in the previous quarter, with a gross profit margin of 73.47%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $176.00 million, a net profit margin of 20.69%, and adjusted EPS of $1.36; revenue grew 4.36% year over year, while adjusted EPS declined 28.04% year over year. - A key financial highlight was an adjusted EPS beat versus expectations ($1.36 actual vs. $1.26 estimate), even as EBIT undershot forecasts, reflecting better realized revenue and cost control. - Main business highlights: oil and natural gas revenue was $810.24 million, gas purchase revenue was $61.04 million, third-party midstream services contributed $43.83 million, unrealized derivatives contributed $19.95 million, and derivative settlements contributed $3.95 million, with oil and natural gas remaining the dominant growth contributor; year-over-year breakdown by segment was not disclosed in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core E&P operations and revenue trajectory

The exploration and production business is the engine of Matador Resources’ topline, and the latest forecast pegs revenue at $803.05 million, down 16.98% year over year. The drop is consistent with a softer commodity backdrop and potential mix effects between oil and natural gas realizations, which tend to exert leverage on cash margins. The previous quarter’s gross margin of 73.47% and net margin of 20.69% set a high bar; achieving comparable margins would likely require both resilient realized oil prices and sustained low lifting and completion costs. The company’s completion cadence and well productivity will be central to smoothing production volumes through seasonal and service market variability. Given the projected EBIT of $211.26 million and EPS of $0.83, the market anticipates margin compression relative to the prior quarter, reflecting a more cautious stance on commodity-linked profitability.

Midstream services as a stabilizer

Third-party midstream services delivered $43.83 million last quarter and remain a strategic buffer against commodity price volatility. The fee-based nature of these revenues can support more predictable cash generation, even as E&P margins fluctuate. As new pads come online and third-party volumes connect to gathering and processing infrastructure, this segment can grow through higher throughput and incremental service contracts. The key watch item is whether throughput growth and tariff structures can outpace inflation in operating costs; if achieved, midstream margins could expand and support consolidated profitability, especially in quarters where commodity pricing is under pressure. Over time, a growing midstream contribution can also reduce the volatility of consolidated cash flows.

Stock price sensitivity: commodity prices, differentials, and cost discipline

Share performance this quarter will be most sensitive to realized oil and gas pricing, regional differentials, and evidence of cost control. A modest improvement in oil benchmarks could meaningfully lift revenue and EBIT above the current forecasts, given the operating leverage inherent in E&P models. Conversely, wider differentials or higher service costs could weigh on margin conversion from revenue to EBIT and EPS. Investors will focus on signals about drilling and completion efficiencies, well results versus type curves, and any updates on capital allocation, as these factors shape free cash flow expectations. Management commentary around hedging and basis exposure may also influence how investors assess risk to near-term margins.

Analyst Opinions

Most institutional commentary over the last six months has leaned constructive, with a majority of analysts maintaining positive to neutral stances, citing disciplined execution and the stabilizing role of midstream revenues. The positive camp highlights recent adjusted EPS outperformance relative to consensus and the company’s ability to sustain robust gross margins amid cost volatility, suggesting potential upside if commodity prices hold or improve. Analysts also note the revenue contribution from third-party midstream services as an underappreciated strength that can dampen earnings volatility. On the cautious side, some expect year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS this quarter as reflected in forecasts, emphasizing commodity price sensitivity and differential risk; however, these views are less prevalent than constructive ones. Overall, the consensus skew is constructive, focusing on the company’s operational consistency and incremental midstream growth as supports for the quarter’s performance.