Upstart Stock Surges 27% on Strong Guidance, Double-Beat on Q4 Results

Tiger Newspress
12 Feb

Upstart Holdings, Inc. shares spiked 27% in premarket trading after the AI-driven lending platform delivered a double-beat on Q4 2024 results, buoyed by an acceleration in origination activity, and issued strong guidance.

The company sees full-year 2025 revenue of about $1B, surpassing the $823.1M average analyst estimate, with revenue from fees of ~$920M and net interest income of ~$80M. It also expects adjusted EBITDA margin of ~18% (vs. 13% Visible Alpha estimate).

For Q1 2025, it expects revenue of ~$200M (vs. $184.6M Wall Street consensus); adjusted EBITDA of ~$27M (vs. $10.7M Visible Alpha estimate).

Turning to Q4 2024 results, adjusted EPS of $0.26, blowing past the -$0.04 consensus, jumped from -$0.06 in the prior quarter and -$0.11 a year before.

Q4 revenue of $219M, also surpassing the $181.9M consensus, climbed from $162.1M in Q3 and +56% from the year-ago period.

“In Q4 of 2024, our business grew dramatically across all product categories, delivered Adjusted EBITDA at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2022, and came within a whisker of returning to GAAP profitability,” said Co-Founder and CEO Dave Girouard.

Adjusted EBITDA of $38.8M, handily beating the Visible Alpha estimate of $6.1M, compared with $1.4M in Q3 and $0.6M in Q4 2023. Adjusted EBITDA Margin was 18% of total revenue, up from 0% in Q4 2023.

During the quarter, 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1B, up 68% Y/Y and up 33% Q/Q. Its conversion rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023.

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