On November 4th, lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant decline, with the main 2601 contract closing down 4.34% at 78,560 yuan per ton.

Analysts attribute the drop in lithium carbonate futures prices to ongoing supply-side uncertainties. Liu Qiyue, an analyst at Xingye Futures, noted that market sentiment remains volatile due to unresolved concerns over the resumption of lithium mining operations in Jiangxi. Wang Meidan, an analyst at CITIC Futures, echoed this view, stating that the sharp retreat in prices was driven by heightened supply-side unpredictability, which has undermined confidence among long-position holders.

Recent reports suggested that CATL's Jianxiawo mine had achieved a critical breakthrough in obtaining approval for production resumption. However, sources indicate that the final decision on the mine's restart remains uncertain. "The market continues to react to developments surrounding CATL's Jianxiawo mine, amplifying supply-side uncertainties," Liu explained. Despite these fluctuations, he emphasized that the fundamental tight supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate remains unchanged.

Wang Meidan pointed out that the lithium carbonate market is still characterized by tight supply and demand, with inventories continuing to decline. On the supply side, lithium salt production remains flexible. According to SMM data, China's lithium carbonate output rose approximately 5.7% month-on-month in October to 92,300 tons, with production expected to remain high in November and December. Additionally, expectations for increased imports of lithium ore and lithium salt further bolster supply elasticity. On the demand side, downstream production schedules in November are projected to maintain month-on-month growth, supported by stronger-than-expected off-season demand, which may sustain marginal improvements in fundamentals. The focus now shifts to the sustainability of demand growth.

"Since early August, lithium carbonate inventories have been steadily declining, averaging a weekly reduction of about 1,369 tons," Liu noted. "If the Jianxiawo mine does not resume production in November, the tight supply-demand balance could persist." He advised close monitoring of corporate production resumption updates.

Zhang Junrui, an analyst at Hongze Research, concurred that the lithium carbonate market remains tight. Under a neutral forecast, downstream demand in November is expected to grow 3% month-on-month, while supply shows no immediate significant increase. Zhang highlighted that inventory drawdowns in November are likely to remain substantial. Short-term attention should center on the actual progress of lithium mine resumptions in Jiangxi. Despite frequent rumors about CATL's Jianxiawo mine, no concrete signs of resumption have emerged, prompting traders to approach market news with caution.

Looking ahead, Zhang suggested that while supply-side disruptions remain unconfirmed, the recent sharp price correction and ongoing inventory reductions have already priced in some positive factors. In the near term, lithium carbonate prices may fluctuate within a range.

Wang Meidan, however, maintained that the current strong supply-demand dynamic could endure. "Market concerns over supply constraints have eased compared to earlier expectations," she said. Global lithium resources are still in a release cycle, with supply gradually recovering, which may exert pressure on market fundamentals. However, robust growth in energy storage and electric vehicle markets continues to drive overall demand expectations. The key focus will be on December demand trends. If demand fails to expand further while supply increases materialize, the market could enter an inventory accumulation phase, potentially marking a turning point for lithium carbonate prices.