Following the U.S. announcement of sanctions exemptions, buyers are actively competing to purchase shipments of Russian crude oil, while showing greater caution toward Iranian cargoes.

In response to surging energy prices caused by Middle East conflicts, the U.S. government temporarily lifted restrictions on oil from both Russia and Iran earlier this month. However, due to the short duration of the exemptions and compliance concerns, crude trade flows are unlikely to return to normal. The move has drawn criticism from U.S. allies, who worry it may weaken pressure on Moscow and Tehran.

According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, approximately 18 tankers carrying around 13.5 million barrels of Russian crude are potentially available for purchase east of the Suez Canal. This is down from about 25 vessels holding roughly 19 million barrels just two weeks ago, when the exemption scope was expanded. Although additional shipments have entered the region after passing through the Suez Canal, available inventory has still declined.

Most of these vessels are currently signaling "awaiting orders," indicating that final buyers have not yet been confirmed. One ship lists its destination near Singapore, a common anchorage area for oil sales. Among these tankers, seven are loaded with Russia’s flagship Urals crude, which is similar in quality to much of the Middle Eastern oil affected by regional conflicts.

In contrast, data from Vortexa shows that Iran’s floating storage volumes have remained largely unchanged at around 27 million barrels since receiving the exemption last Friday. State-owned enterprises in India have hesitated, citing challenges related to payments, insurance, and securing compliant vessels. Floating storage typically refers to tankers idling at sea for at least a week and serves as an indicator of supply availability, excluding ships in transit that may carry unsold cargo.

“I expect countries to be even more reluctant to buy Iranian oil than Russian oil under the U.S. exemption,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based consultancy Vanda Insights. She noted that Iranian oil may face quality concerns and payment mechanism issues, which are not obstacles for Russian crude.