As of November 10, the "CCTD Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Spot Reference Price" for 5500K, 5000K, and 4500K specifications settled at 817, 725, and 633 yuan per ton, respectively, rising by 8, 8, and 6 yuan per ton daily. However, prices remain 35, 28, and 28 yuan per ton lower year-on-year.
Recent demand for thermal coal has remained robust, supported by lower-than-average inventory levels in midstream and downstream sectors, as well as seasonal winter consumption expectations. Market optimism continues to drive prices upward.
Zheshang Securities noted that incremental changes are turning qualitative, with coal prices strengthening and entering a second wave of growth in Q4. Daily consumption is expected to rise around November 20, prompting power plants to increase procurement. Tight supply due to safety regulations has already pushed prices to 800 yuan per ton, with further upside potential to 850 yuan per ton as fundamentals improve.
Given delayed summer demand in southern regions and an estimated 10-day earlier start to heating season, an additional 50 million tons of inventory may be consumed, widening the supply-demand gap. Some regions could face temporary shortages, potentially pushing inventories below historical averages.
Looking ahead, Q4 may see a gradual rebalancing of supply and demand, with coal prices steadily climbing. Current coal sector dividends remain reasonable, supported by improving fundamentals.
Founder Securities highlighted that tightening supply in the coal industry is now a key investment theme. Winter demand could reverse the current oversupply, further lifting prices. As supply contracts and demand rises, the coal market may stabilize, with potential restrictions on imported coal.
The firm recommends high-contract-coverage stocks like
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