The Bank of Korea stated on Thursday that the global semiconductor boom, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) demand, is expected to continue until at least the end of next year.

Deputy Governor Lee Ji-ho noted during an economic outlook briefing, "The semiconductor upcycle appears likely to extend through next year, though it remains uncertain whether it will persist until 2027."

He added, "Historically, semiconductor upcycles last around two years, but the current cycle may be prolonged due to the global AI boom. If it continues until late 2026, its duration would parallel that of the IT bubble around 2000."

Supported by robust global semiconductor demand, strong exports, and improving consumer confidence, South Korea's economy has remained on a recovery path.

In October, exports rose 3.6% year-on-year to $59.57 billion, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth despite reduced shipments to the U.S. due to tariffs.

Semiconductor exports surged 25.4% year-on-year to $15.73 billion in October, setting a record high for the month and extending an eight-month growth streak.

Given these trends, the Bank of Korea revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward from 0.9% to 1% and raised its 2026 projection from 1.6% to 1.8%.

However, the central bank cautioned that it is premature to declare a full economic recovery. Excluding IT manufacturing, next year's growth rate would be 1.4%, a level not considered "strong or sufficient."

The Bank of Korea also highlighted the weakening Korean won as a key concern, warning that prolonged depreciation could widen economic disparities, particularly between major exporters and small- and medium-sized enterprises.