As the U.S. and other nations push to diversify critical mineral supply chains, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is set to meet with President Donald Trump on Monday to promote the country's abundant mineral resources.
Albanese is scheduled to meet with Trump around 11 a.m. Washington time, with the main goal of establishing a cooperation agreement with the U.S. regarding critical minerals. Additionally, he is expected to seek a commitment from the U.S. to continue fulfilling the AUKUS pact, under which the U.S. will assist Australia in acquiring nuclear submarines.
At last week's global finance ministers' meeting in Washington, China's unprecedented export restrictions on rare earth supply chains became a focal point of discussions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that there is a growing consensus among nations, revealing that U.S. officials are consulting with "European allies, Australia, Canada, India, and Asian democracies" on countermeasures.
In recent weeks, several foreign leaders have visited Washington to strengthen ties with the U.S., while avoiding confrontations with its unpredictable president. Albanese's trip continues this trend. A recent survey showed that while the Australian public generally supports the alliance with the U.S., many oppose Trump and are concerned about the future of American democracy. As a result, Albanese needs to navigate a delicate diplomatic balance.
Ahead of Monday's meeting, Australian Ambassador to the U.S., Kevin Rudd, has been actively lobbying the Trump administration, emphasizing Australia’s capability to address supply risks for critical minerals for Western economies. "Australia can be seen as a microcosm of the periodic table," he remarked in a speech last week in Washington. "Having mineral resources is one thing; knowing how to extract them—considering that mining is a high-tech industry—is another. We possess the world's largest and most advanced mining companies."
Rudd highlighted that the U.S. has a gap in the supply of 50 designated critical minerals and rare earths; with joint investments, Australia could meet 30 to 40 of these mineral supply demands without excessive additional efforts, particularly in the processing of rare earths.
Market participants have remained optimistic that Australia and the U.S. will seriously discuss Australia’s capacity to ensure stable rare earth supply and assist the U.S. in developing domestic rare earth production capabilities. Investors are increasingly favoring companies expected to gain U.S. support, such as Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., whose stock has risen over 150% in the past 12 months.
On the eve of Albanese's meeting with Trump, shares of rare earth mining companies surged: Arafura Rare Earths Ltd. rose as much as 21%, Brazilian Rare Earths Ltd. was up 6%, Resolution Minerals Ltd. climbed as much as 49%, and Lynas Rare Earths gained 7.2%.
According to insiders, during a meeting last month in Washington, officials from multiple U.S. government agencies informed representatives from over a dozen Australian mining companies that the U.S. government is assessing the possibility of investing in these firms through equity stakes. Earlier this month, the mining companies revealed they had been invited to Washington to present their projects to Rudd.
Should the U.S. ultimately take equity stakes in Australian mining companies, it would not be the first direct foreign government investment in Australian resource projects. In 2011, China suspended rare earth supplies to Japan due to territorial disputes, leading Japan to invest in Lynas. In 2023, Japan further increased its investment to ensure a stable supply of heavy rare earths, which are essential for producing magnets and currently restricted from export by China.
Although critical minerals are vital, their prices have recently been sluggish, impacting Australia’s revenue expectations from these resources and prompting the Albanese government to establish a $1.2 billion AUD (approximately 57.6 billion RMB) mineral reserve fund.
Assessing the Progress of the AUKUS Agreement
Australia is also keen to understand the U.S.'s current assessment of the AUKUS agreement. Australian government officials have publicly expressed confidence in the sustainability of this comprehensive security pact with the U.S. and U.K. According to an anonymous source involved in internal discussions, Australia believes that the core goal of this assessment is to reinforce the agreement rather than dismantle it.
Last week, Australian Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy visited Washington and sensed a positive attitude toward the agreement during discussions. "When I met with senior leaders in the U.S. Congress, they expressed strong agreement on the importance of the AUKUS pact," he said. "I also felt the same positive atmosphere in communications with the U.S. Department of Defense."