The global memory industry is currently experiencing a super-cycle driven by a surge in artificial intelligence demand. However, over time, major memory producers, represented by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are reassessing the market's supply-demand balance and adopting more cautious expansion strategies. Reports indicate that Samsung anticipates the memory shortage will end by 2028, suggesting the company needs to adjust its capacity plans based on demand forecasts to avoid over-expansion. SK Hynix has previously stated it will maintain a cautious approach to capacity increases. Concerns that a downturn in demand for general-purpose memory (Dataram) may be imminent are spreading widely within the industry, leading these manufacturers to grow increasingly wary of plans to expand production facilities. Nevertheless, given the current strong customer demand for HBM and Dataram capacity, suppliers are not expected to make any adjustments to their existing expansion plans, as failing to increase production lines would make it difficult to meet current market needs. However, once demand slows or stabilizes, memory suppliers will need to immediately adjust their production levels, meaning any excessive capacity commitments could cause problems for them.

The industry widely believes the only solution to the memory shortage is for suppliers to increase capacity, but their cautious stance on expansion makes it difficult to predict when memory prices will normalize. Some reports also indicate that the current trend of rising prices for Dataram and consumer products is becoming the new normal. Clark Tseng, Senior Director of Market Intelligence at the global semiconductor industry association SEMI, stated that the annual growth rate of global Dataram capacity is only about 4.8% through 2030. In contrast, annual spending growth on AI infrastructure by the four major cloud service providers is projected to be around 38% by 2028. Constructing a new semiconductor fabrication plant takes approximately three years, and even retrofitting production lines within an existing factory for new chip designs requires several months, plus additional time for yield stabilization. This imbalance between supply and demand is expected to continue driving up memory prices.

It has been reported that Samsung Electronics doubled its Dataram contract prices in the first quarter of this year alone. While this price increase trend has led to strong financial performance for both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, South Korean suppliers remain particularly wary of a potential slump in demand, as the lessons from the post-pandemic oversupply crisis are still fresh. In the quarters following the pandemic, due to weak procurement momentum for new products in the PC sector, an oversupply of memory chips caused the combined losses of Samsung's semiconductor division and SK Hynix to reach 22 trillion Korean won (approximately $14.7 billion), severely impacting both companies' profit margins.