Orient Securities has reiterated its "Buy" rating on JD-SW (09618), raising its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB1,331.2 billion, RMB1,409.4 billion, and RMB1,485.6 billion (previously RMB1,327.6 billion, RMB1,396.7 billion, and RMB1,464.2 billion). Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB27.1 billion, RMB43.8 billion, and RMB52.5 billion (previously RMB22.8 billion, RMB43.6 billion, and RMB52.0 billion).

Based on comparable companies, the brokerage assigned a 9X PE valuation for JD's retail and new businesses in 2026, combined with the value of its external equity investments, deriving a target market capitalization of RMB554.6 billion. This translates to a target share price of HK$190.96 (using an exchange rate of 1.098 RMB/HKD).

For Q3 2025, JD Retail is expected to generate revenue of RMB248.67 billion, up 10.5% year-on-year, driven by stronger traffic synergies from peak-season food delivery demand, partially offset by the base effect of national subsidy policies (implemented since late August 2024). While sequential growth may slow, user activity and purchase frequency are projected to remain steady compared to Q2.

Gross merchandise volume (GMV) is anticipated to sustain double-digit growth in Q3, with 1P GMV likely decelerating due to subsidy policy impacts, while 3P GMV is expected to accelerate further, maintaining robust double-digit expansion—supported by daily essentials orders converted from food delivery traffic.

Operating profit for JD Retail in Q3 is forecast at RMB13.67 billion, with an operating margin of 5.5%, benefiting from optimized marketing and subsidy structures amid traffic growth. The retail segment remains stable with positive momentum, poised for steady mid-to-short-term growth leveraging food delivery synergies and unit economics improvements.