Title

Earning Preview: Cipher Mining Inc. Q4 revenue expected to increase by 103.43%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Cipher Mining Inc. is scheduled to report results on February 24, 2026 Pre-Market; our preview synthesizes street forecasts and company-tracked trends to frame expected revenue, profitability trajectories, and the catalysts likely to shape investor reaction around the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus tracking indicates Cipher Mining Inc.’s current-quarter revenue is estimated at $86.85 million, representing 103.43% year-over-year growth, while adjusted EPS is projected at -$0.10, implying a year-over-year change of -100.63%; EBIT is modeled at a loss of $32.50 million with a year-over-year change of -89.85%. Formal forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not disclosed in the dataset; directional commentary points to revenue growth outpacing fixed-cost absorption but with margin sensitivity to power costs and fleet efficiency. The company’s core operating engine remains its bitcoin-mining operations, where throughput and uptime optimization are expected to drive sequential volume and revenue, even as unit economics fluctuate with realized pricing and energy inputs. The most promising segment is the bitcoin-mining business itself, which produced $71.71 million in last quarter revenue, up 197.52% year over year, and remains the key lever for absolute earnings power this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Last quarter, Cipher Mining Inc. delivered $71.71 million in revenue (+197.52% year over year), a gross profit margin of 42.57%, GAAP net profit attributable to the company of -$3.28 million for a net profit margin of -4.58%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.09 (+65.38% year over year). A notable financial highlight was the quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit of 92.83%, indicating better operating leverage and cost normalization despite a reported EBIT loss of $37.62 million. Main business performance was centered on bitcoin mining, generating $71.71 million in revenue (+197.52% year over year) from self-mining activity, with higher uptime and capacity translating into elevated output against a heightened cost base.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Bitcoin mining revenue trajectory

The current quarter’s revenue forecast of $86.85 million implies strong year-over-year expansion, building on the last quarter’s step-up in production and realized revenue. The model-implied translation of recent operating metrics suggests that higher effective hashing capacity and improved site reliability continue to lift revenue capture despite variability in realized unit economics. That said, the forecasted adjusted EPS of -$0.10 and EBIT loss of $32.50 million highlight an earnings profile still constrained by depreciation, power input costs, and ramp timing for newly installed equipment. From a mechanics standpoint, revenue sensitivity this quarter will hinge on a balance between realized production, transaction-fee dynamics embedded in block rewards, and the degree of fleet efficiency attained through curtailment management at key sites. Power price fluctuations have been a meaningful swing factor; the better the company can time production to lower-cost periods and maximize uptime during favorable economics, the more headroom it creates for gross margin expansion from last quarter’s 42.57% baseline. Internal cost controls and optimized run schedules can cushion the downside impact on margins even when headline revenue tracks to the current estimate. Looking at the P&L shape, the translation of revenue gains into profitability may remain nonlinear in the near term. Depreciation schedules tied to high-capacity machines and scaling costs weigh on EBIT and EPS, as reflected in the forecasted negative figures. Still, the 92.83% sequential improvement in net profit last quarter provides a baseline that incremental operational efficiencies and disciplined cost management could sustain, even as the quarter’s modeled EPS remains negative. A narrower operating loss than last quarter would likely be read positively by the market if revenue meets or exceeds $86.85 million.

Emerging power and data center monetization

A practical theme this quarter is the optionality around monetizing power access and infrastructure for high-performance compute workloads. Recent institutional commentary highlights a rising willingness among compute buyers to pay a “time-to-power” premium for rapid access to capacity, creating a potential supplemental revenue stream that is less correlated to volatile production variables. While this is not yet reflected as a separate revenue line in last quarter’s segment disclosure, it is increasingly relevant to capital allocation and near-term narrative. Cipher Mining Inc. announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Black Pearl Compute plans a $2.00 billion senior secured notes offering due 2031 in a private placement to fund the remaining costs of the Black Pearl facility, reimburse prior equity contributions of approximately $232.50 million, and provision debt service reserves and related fees. This financing strategy, if completed on contemplated terms, would accelerate build-out timelines and expand the company’s ability to allocate power infrastructure across compute use cases. For the quarter under review, the financial impact will be on the balance sheet and forward commitments rather than in reported revenue; however, investor attention is likely to frame the capital plan as a strategic enabler with potential medium-term P&L effects. In the near term, the investment community will watch for qualitative updates on the pace of capacity procurement, partner interest for compute deployments, and expected milestones for energization and commercialization. While the core revenue estimate still stems from bitcoin-mining operations, incremental disclosures about pre-leasing, pricing frameworks, or pipeline conversion could shape sentiment around forward multiples. If management articulates a credible schedule that complements self-mining cash generation, investors may begin to bridge from revenue growth to a clearer pathway for margin durability beyond the current negative EBIT forecast.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

The foremost driver around the print will be the relationship between reported revenue and the $86.85 million estimate, alongside any commentary on realized unit economics versus the last quarter’s 42.57% gross margin. A revenue beat accompanied by stable or rising gross margin would likely alleviate concerns embedded in the -$32.50 million EBIT forecast and -$0.10 adjusted EPS estimate; conversely, a shortfall or a weaker margin could amplify attention to cash burn and fixed-cost absorption. The sequential progression from last quarter’s 92.83% net profit improvement sets a reference point the market will use to triangulate operating leverage, even if absolute profitability remains negative. Second, financing and project updates will occupy a central place in valuation discussions. Investors will parse the details of the proposed $2.00 billion senior secured notes at Black Pearl Compute, including coupon, covenants, and drawdown cadence, to gauge the impact on the consolidated capital structure. Clarity on project capex, contingency budgets, and timeline risk will help the market assess how capital intensity and future interest expense affect the trajectory from revenue growth to sustainable net income. Third, operational execution metrics will shape the narrative. Management color on site uptime, machine efficiency, curtailment economics, and procurement strategy for new capacity can signal how reliably revenue scales quarter to quarter. Evidence that operating practices are cushioning cost volatility would support arguments for better cash conversion, particularly if depreciation and other non-cash expenses dominate the gap between gross profit and EBIT. The more concrete the quantitative detail on these drivers, the more confident markets will be in extrapolating beyond this quarter’s negative EPS baseline.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary since January shows a majority bullish stance on Cipher Mining Inc., with the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions at 2:0 in our collected window. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $38 price target on February 9, noting increasing willingness among key AI compute buyers to pay higher “time-to-power” premia, which could enhance the economics for companies with scalable power access and data center development pathways. Alongside this, aggregated coverage indicates a Buy-leaning consensus with a mean price target near $29.30, reinforcing a constructive directional view into the upcoming report. The bullish camp’s logic centers on two pillars that map directly to the quarter’s setup. First, the revenue estimate of $86.85 million (+103.43% year over year) suggests that operational capacity and throughput can continue translating into top-line growth, even if headline profitability metrics remain negative. Bulls argue that incremental efficiency gains and disciplined cost control can preserve last quarter’s positive momentum in net profit progression (+92.83% quarter over quarter) and maintain gross margins relative to the 42.57% baseline, thereby narrowing the gap between gross profit and EBIT over time. Second, investors receptive to the Overweight thesis view power and data center monetization as a flexible extension of the company’s infrastructure base, enabling diversification of revenue sources without abandoning the core operational engine. While this quarter’s P&L will still skew toward bitcoin-mining revenue, the proposed $2.00 billion senior secured notes for Black Pearl Compute are interpreted as a deliberate step to accelerate future capacity and potential contracted economics that are less sensitive to near-term volatility in production variables. In that framework, near-term negative adjusted EPS of -$0.10 and a -$32.50 million EBIT forecast are seen as transitory features of a scaling profile rather than structural constraints on value creation. Bulls will also look for incremental disclosures that reduce uncertainty around capital deployment and operating timelines. A well-defined schedule for major milestones at Black Pearl, evidence of disciplined procurement for machines and power, and consistent run-time metrics at existing sites would support the thesis that revenue growth can be paired with improving margin visibility in subsequent periods. Should management communicate progress on these areas while delivering revenue at or above $86.85 million and maintaining gross margin resilience, the bullish majority expects the market to reward the stock with a focus on forward operating leverage rather than the current quarter’s negative EBIT and EPS optics.