On November 10, the price of fresh pork at Beijing’s Xinfadi market stood at 14.9 yuan per kilogram, down from the average of 15.40 yuan per kilogram on October 31. However, pork prices showed a modest rebound in October. By October 31, the wholesale price of fresh pork at Xinfadi had risen 3.70% from 14.85 yuan per kilogram on October 24 and 0.98% from 15.25 yuan per kilogram on September 30, marking slight weekly and monthly increases. Although year-on-year prices remained in decline, the pace of contraction narrowed, contributing to a mild recovery in October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year in October, rebounding from a 0.3% year-on-year decline in September. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion and reaching its highest level since March 2024.
The recovery was driven by multiple factors, including the sustained effects of domestic demand-boosting policies and holiday consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed positive trends, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%—the third consecutive month of improvement—while the monthly PPI turned positive for the first time this year, rising 0.1%.
Analysts noted that the October price data reflects an initial turning point in price recovery. Core CPI has risen for six straight months, while PPI’s year-on-year decline has narrowed for three consecutive months, signaling an upward trend. The PPI’s month-on-month growth, after months of stagnation, also carries positive implications.
**Food Prices Outperform Seasonal Trends** At Xinfadi market, daily pork supply surged in late October, leading to a brief rebound in prices. Liu Tong, head of the market’s statistics department, noted that wholesale prices and sales volume rose simultaneously due to ample hog supply and farmers’ reluctance to sell at low prices. Although hog inventories have declined slightly in recent months, breeding sow numbers remain high, limiting room for a sustained price rebound.
Pork prices fell 16.0% year-on-year in October, dragging CPI down by 0.23 percentage points, but the decline narrowed compared to September. Meanwhile, price drops for eggs and fresh vegetables also moderated, reflecting stable supply and recovering demand. Overall, food prices rose 0.3% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables, fruits, and holiday-driven demand for meat and seafood contributing to the increase.
**Core CPI Boosted by Services and Industrial Goods** The expansion in core CPI was attributed to rising service prices and industrial consumer goods. NBS chief statistician Dong Lijuan highlighted that improved supply-demand dynamics drove price increases in sectors like coal mining (up 1.6% month-on-month), coal processing (up 0.8%), and photovoltaic equipment (up 0.6%). Prices for cement, computers, lithium-ion batteries, and integrated circuits also turned positive.
Analysts expect further price stabilization as domestic industries optimize capacity and reduce inefficient competition. While domestic demand remains subdued due to slowing real estate and infrastructure activity, resilient overseas demand and supply-side adjustments may support price levels in the near term.