A worldwide shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is rapidly spreading from data centers to the consumer electronics sector, with the smartphone industry emerging as the primary pressure point. This "memory crisis," triggered by a surge in demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, is causing structural shocks across the global electronics supply chain.

Leading smartphone chipmaker Qualcomm and UK-based semiconductor design firm ARM Holdings have issued warnings, stating that the persistent HBM shortage will directly constrain smartphone production volumes. As the world's largest supplier of smartphone processors, Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer Cristiano Amon commented during an earnings call:

"At an industry level, tight memory supply and rising prices could directly cap the overall size of the entire handset market."

Amon revealed that some customers have indicated plans to reduce handset production targets this year. Reports suggest several major smartphone manufacturers are revising down their 2026 shipment goals, with one company's adjustment rumored to be as high as 20%.

This shortage is widely viewed as a mid-to-long-term structural challenge. Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger stated bluntly, "To my knowledge, the shortage situation will not ease." Market research firm TrendForce further predicts that data centers are expected to absorb 70% of high-end memory chips produced this year, continuously squeezing the allocation share for the consumer electronics sector.

**AI Demand Squeezes Consumer Market** Demand from data centers, driven by AI infrastructure, is creating a significant "siphon effect" on the global supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to sustained pressure on the consumer electronics field. Micron Technology noted that soaring demand for AI-related high-end semiconductors caused the memory chip shortage to worsen further in the past quarter, a situation expected to persist beyond this year.

Goldman Sachs analyst William Chan recently alerted clients, emphasizing that the current memory shortage is "real and accelerating." He identified the fundamental driver as the massive demand from AI infrastructure build-out, which has already caused severe supply gaps for consumer electronics like smartphones and personal computers that rely on HBM.

Market prices clearly reflect the tight supply. According to data from the Amazon price tracking platform CamelCamelCamel, the price of a Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB memory module surged from $145 to $790 over the past six months, an increase of over four times. This highlights how the supply-demand imbalance across the industry chain is rapidly transmitting to the end consumer market.

**Industry Giants Downgrade Forecasts** The impact of the memory shortage continues to propagate and deepen throughout the electronics supply chain. Chipmaker MediaTek acknowledged this week during an analyst call that the supply situation is "evolving dynamically." Goldman Sachs analyst Allen Chang recently downgraded global PC shipment forecasts for 2026 to 2028 due to memory constraints.

Nintendo has become an early, direct casualty of soaring memory costs. Its stock price has recently been under pressure, largely attributed to expectations that rising prices for key components, including HBM, will significantly erode its product profit margins. Goldman Sachs analysts first warned as early as December last year that Nintendo would face HBM supply challenges.

ARM Holdings, a company that derives significant revenue from technology licensing in the smartphone industry, has not been insulated from this shortage. An industry insider commented last week, "If you are planning to buy any consumer electronics, a PC, or a smartphone... now is the time." This remark indirectly reflects widespread market expectations for ongoing supply chain tension and future price trends.

**Shortage Could Last for Years** Analysts and industry executives generally agree that this memory crisis will not end soon. The pessimistic forecast from Intel's CEO reflects an industry consensus that, against a backdrop of persistently strong AI demand, tight memory supply for consumer electronics could become the norm.

TrendForce's projections indicate that data centers will claim the vast majority of high-end memory chip output this year, meaning the supply available for consumer electronics is extremely limited. This structural imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term, as memory manufacturers prioritize fulfilling more profitable data center orders.

For investors, this shortage is reshaping the investment logic for the electronics industry. Consumer electronics device manufacturers face a dual pressure of rising costs and limited production, while memory chip makers benefit from price increases and surging data center demand.