The final week of May saw us launch multiple polls on hot topics including gold, crude oil, the Nasdaq, Middle East tensions, and the US midterm elections. All ten JD.com gift cards have now been distributed. With the results now in, let's see how the community's predictions aligned with the actual market movements.
Nasdaq: A Bullish Majority Prevailed
In the poll asking "Where will the Nasdaq 100 close at the end of May?", the option for "Above 30,000 points" received 5,271 votes, accounting for 75% of the total. The index ultimately closed above the 30,000 mark, demonstrating the community's strong confidence in the ongoing AI-driven bull market. The outcome shows that optimism surrounding AI, semiconductors, and tech giants was significantly stronger than broader global benchmarks, resulting in a victory for the bulls.
NYMEX Crude Oil: The Market Overestimated Geopolitical Risk
In the poll "Will NYMEX crude oil surpass $110 in May?", bullish sentiment among participants briefly exceeded 40%, notably higher than the global benchmark. However, as expectations for US-Iran negotiations grew and Middle East tensions eased, oil prices continued to retreat. Ultimately, crude failed to break above $110. Looking at the poll's trend, support for this view declined rapidly towards the end, indicating a growing number of investors recognized the diminishing geopolitical risk premium.
London Gold: Safe-Haven Sentiment Ultimately Faded
In the poll "Will London gold surpass $4,800 in May?", bullish views peaked at over 20%. However, as market risk appetite recovered and some safe-haven capital flowed out, gold's upward momentum gradually weakened. London gold ultimately did not break through $4,800. The poll's trend curve shows that support, both from the community and global benchmarks, declined sharply in the final days, indicating the market had already adjusted its expectations ahead of time.
US-Iran Permanent Peace Pact: Market Shifted from Optimism to Caution
In the poll "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before the end of May?", global benchmarks initially assigned a probability close to 70%. However, as negotiation details were continuously disclosed, the market gradually realized that a permanent peace is far more complex than a simple ceasefire. The two sides ultimately did not reach such an agreement by May's end. This outcome became a significant factor contributing to the substantial volatility seen in the related oil and gold polls.
US Midterm Elections: Republicans Remain Favored
In the poll "Who will win the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?", support for the Republican Party has remained around 60% for an extended period, significantly higher than the global benchmark. This suggests most investors still believe the Republicans hold a strong competitive advantage. Although the official election is still some time away, current polling indicates the market has already begun pricing in related expectations.
Highest Market Cap Company at May's End: Nvidia Receives Overwhelming Support
In the poll for "The company with the highest market capitalization at the end of May?", Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) received almost all the votes. Against the backdrop of the AI bull market, a high degree of consensus has formed in the market regarding Nvidia's dominance. Facts have proven that over the past year, AI remains one of the strongest thematic drivers in global capital markets.
Key Takeaways from the May Market
Looking back at May: AI continued its strength, the Nasdaq hit new highs, and Nvidia maintained its leadership! The market has once again proven that long-term trends are often more important than short-term sentiment. This leads to the question: as we move into June, which asset are you most bullish on? Feel free to share your views in the comments section.