CICC released a research report stating that the global automotive industry is undergoing structural reorganization. By 2025, Chinese automakers will have completed export expansion and are poised to enter an accelerated overseas expansion phase. The firm expects that by 2030, Chinese independent automotive brands could achieve a global production scale of nearly 30 million vehicles and cultivate several automakers with annual production exceeding 5 million units. As global consumers have established awareness of electric intelligent technology, European, American, and Japanese automakers are accelerating product launches, and new energy penetration rates in non-Chinese markets will shift from being a drag to an accelerator. Therefore, CICC suggests focusing on overseas expansion opportunities for Chinese independent automakers and supply chain opportunities driven by accelerated new energy transformation among European, American, and Japanese automakers.
CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:
**Chinese Automotive Electric-Intelligent Transformation Basically Complete, Moving from Export to Overseas Expansion**
CICC expects China's new energy vehicle penetration rate to exceed 50% in 2025. Leveraging technological transformation advantages, Chinese independent brands have achieved leading market share in the domestic new energy market (reaching 89% based on new energy vehicle registrations in the first 8 months of 2025). With scale advantages and operational efficiency, China continues to lead global automotive exports, and independent automakers are about to enter an accelerated overseas expansion phase, entering a deeper stage of international expansion. CICC projects that by 2030, Chinese independent automotive brands could achieve a global production scale of nearly 30 million vehicles and cultivate several automakers with annual production exceeding 5 million units.
**Global Consumer Technology Awareness Established, Urgent Transformation to New Energy for European and American Automakers, International Chinese Parts Leaders Enter New Expansion Cycle**
CICC believes that based on the electric-intelligent transformation that began in 2012, global consumer awareness has been established. As Chinese product exports and overseas expansion accelerate, non-Chinese markets will experience dual demand and supply drivers, leading to rapid increases in new energy penetration rates. Overseas automakers in the US, Japan, and Europe will accordingly see significant new energy vehicle model launches before 2027, fully benefiting China's global electric-intelligent supply chain. Considering the low base of new energy penetration rates in non-Chinese markets previously and the future volume growth speed and scale, there is potential for a Davis double-play opportunity.
**Stock Recommendations:**
1) Chinese independent automakers with established scale and leading overseas expansion layouts: BYD COMPANY-100 (01211), LEAPMOTOR (09863), Great Wall Motor Company Limited (601633.SH), GEELY AUTO (00175), XPeng (09868), etc.
2) As European, American, and Japanese automakers undergo electric-intelligent transformation, international parts leaders with global presence and technological leadership will experience a Davis double-play: MINTH GROUP (00425), Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.,Ltd. (600660.SH), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.,Ltd. (002050.SZ), Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.,Ltd. (603035.SH), Keboda Technology Co.,Ltd. (603786.SH), etc.
**Risk Factors:** Changes in overseas market trade policies; Chinese automakers' overseas expansion falling short of expectations.