On the morning of February 9th, the precious metals market continued its rebound, with gold and silver prices recovering swiftly after experiencing rare roller-coaster swings. In international markets, spot gold and spot silver rose rapidly. Spot gold increased by over 1.5% during the session, breaking through $5,040 per ounce, and was up 1.1% at the time of writing. Spot silver touched $81 per ounce, rising more than 4%. Domestic precious metals futures also saw significant gains, with platinum up over 9% and Shanghai silver futures rising more than 8%. Hong Kong-listed precious metals stocks rallied in early trading, with Wan Guo Gold rising over 5%, China Silver Group gaining nearly 5%, and Tongguan Gold and Zijin Mining Group both advancing more than 4%.
On February 8th, SDIC Silver LOF announced that to protect investor interests, the fund would suspend trading from the market open on February 9th until 10:30 AM, resuming at 10:30 AM on February 9th. If the premium does not effectively decrease, the fund reserves the right to take further measures. Since January 28th, the fund has suspended subscription services, including systematic investment plans, with the resumption date to be announced separately. On the morning of February 9th, after resuming trading and hitting the daily limit down, SDIC Silver LOF experienced volatile gains, with the increase expanding to 8% at one point. By the time of writing, it was up 5.42%.
Recent trends show that on February 6th, SDIC Silver LOF opened at the daily limit down, marking its fifth consecutive trading day hitting the limit down. By the close that day, sell orders for the fund neared 2.3 billion yuan, with a turnover exceeding 200 million yuan, and the premium rate remained as high as 28.73%. The previous four trading days exhibited similar patterns, with daily sell orders consistently above 2.7 billion yuan.
Domestic gold jewelry prices were mixed, mostly higher. On February 9th, per-gram prices for Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, Chow Sang Sang, and Lao Miao gold jewelry all exceeded 1,500 yuan. Major gold retailers have urgently adjusted their buy-back rules, signaling potential market shifts.
Looking ahead, how will precious metals prices evolve? Regarding the current high volatility and future direction of the gold market, Ao Chong, Chief Analyst of nonferrous metals at CITIC Securities, believes the upward trend for gold is not over, with liquidity expectations being the core driver of current price movements. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical conflicts provide periodic safe-haven support for gold. "Market sentiment remains broadly optimistic about the outlook, as the factors influencing gold prices haven't fundamentally changed," said Zhu Zhigang, Supervisor of the Guangdong Gold Association and Chief Analyst. He noted that after breaking through $5,500 per ounce, gold prices experienced a significant drop, briefly falling below $5,000 before recovering above that level. A short-term breakthrough above $5,200 could signal a resumption of the upward pattern; failure to break through may lead to further corrections or even a retest of lows.
A Galaxy Securities research report stated that metal assets may continue consolidating this week, emphasizing the need to closely monitor US January CPI data to assess inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the core logic driving the precious metals bull market has shifted from short-term rate speculation to hedging against long-term US dollar credit risks and global monetary system restructuring. Regarding silver, Galaxy Securities warned of its small market capacity and susceptibility to manipulation, advising caution against leveraged fund stampede risks.
Zhengxin Futures released a report indicating that the current market remains highly uncertain and recommending a cautious approach. Medium-to-long-term, structural supply-demand imbalances in precious metals persist, and they will benefit from geopolitical disturbances, central bank gold purchases, and ETF investments, maintaining their long-term upward trend. Zhejiang Securities noted that short-term, gold and silver face disruptions from liquidity shocks and risk appetite shifts, but maintains a medium-to-long-term view that "gold will outperform silver." Operationally, they suggested using volatility decline as an indicator for increasing allocations. If gold's implied volatility retreats from highs and enters a relatively stable range, it typically signals easing liquidity shocks and more orderly market pricing, significantly improving gold's risk-return profile and making medium-term investment opportunities more attractive.
A representative from a large fund company in Southern China reminded investors that gold is not a guaranteed profit asset. Risk-averse investors could allocate a portion to physical gold, such as gold bars, to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation risks, with an allocation range of 5% to 10%. For investors with stronger risk tolerance, holding physical gold while opportunistically buying gold ETFs, potentially through phased purchasing strategies to avoid chasing highs, may be appropriate.