Geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market sentiment. Late on February 20, Beijing time, according to CCTV News, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on the morning of February 20, Eastern Time, that he is considering limited strikes against Iran. Influenced by this development, the precious metals market experienced a broad surge overnight, with spot silver prices soaring over 8% and spot gold prices rising more than 2%.
At this critical moment, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that there is no military solution to Iran's peaceful nuclear program; the only solution is diplomacy. He also mentioned that Iran has decided to draft a potential agreement text to be discussed in the next round of negotiations, initiating talks on the content.
Additionally, the Trump administration's tariff policies continue to unsettle markets. According to CCTV News, on February 20 local time, President Trump announced he would sign an order under Section 122 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 to impose an additional 10% tariff on all global imports to the United States, on top of existing regular tariffs, for a period of 150 days. This move aims to replace earlier emergency tariffs deemed unlawful by the U.S. Supreme Court. He indicated that the new 10% tariff policy is expected to take effect in "approximately three days."
Analysis suggests that, unlike previous tariffs imposed by Trump, this new tariff can last a maximum of 150 days unless extended by Congressional approval. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled earlier that day that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose broad tariffs, representing a significant setback for the Trump administration's trade policy.
Gold and silver prices surged sharply. During the evening of February 20, Beijing time, precious metals led by gold and silver experienced a broad rally. By the close, spot gold had risen 2.2%, reclaiming the $5,100 per ounce level; spot silver jumped 7.96% to $84.625 per ounce; spot platinum and palladium both gained over 4%.
Fundamentally, the United States is deploying significant military assets in the Middle East, with Trump increasing pressure on Tehran to force an agreement on its nuclear program. When asked on the morning of February 20 local time whether he was considering limited military strikes if Iran does not reach a deal, Trump responded, "I think I can say I am considering that."
On February 19, Trump set a "final deadline," stating that Iran has 10-15 days to reach an agreement with the U.S. Informed sources suggested that U.S. forces might conduct a round of "limited strikes" within days to compel Iranian concessions.
Analysis points out that the current rally in precious metals is driven by a combination of rapidly rising risk premiums and a weakening U.S. dollar. On one hand, recurring uncertainties surrounding geopolitics, international trade friction, and the Middle East situation have undermined confidence in certain dollar-denominated assets. On the other hand, domestic U.S. political disputes, controversies over tariff policies, concerns about Federal Reserve independence, and risks of government shutdowns have fueled sustained safe-haven demand.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices will gradually climb, reaching $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, with diversification strategies providing upside potential. Simultaneously, the firm expects central bank gold purchases in 2026 to accelerate at a pace similar to that seen in 2025. The core view is that central bank demand, coupled with increased holdings by private investors (primarily in response to expected Fed rate cuts), will support steady gold price appreciation. Goldman Sachs notes that if private sector diversification efforts—particularly through call option structures—increase, the market could face significant upside risks. Furthermore, while the medium-term trend remains upward, considerable volatility is likely.
In the latest remarks from Iran, on February 20 local time, Foreign Minister Zarif stated that there is no military solution to Iran's peaceful nuclear program; the only solution is diplomacy. Zarif noted that past attempts, including large-scale attacks on nuclear facilities and the assassination of scientists, failed to destroy Iran's nuclear program. The technology was developed domestically, making it impossible to eliminate through bombing or military action; diplomacy is the sole viable path. Consequently, the U.S. has returned to the negotiating table seeking an agreement.
He expressed Iran's desire for peace and willingness to resolve issues through negotiation and diplomacy, just as Iran remains prepared to defend its security. Zarif mentioned that Iran and the U.S. held very good talks in Geneva, discussing issues related to the nuclear program and U.S. sanctions, and reached consensus on a set of principles or guidelines for the negotiations and the possible form of an agreement.
He also stated that Iran has decided to draft a potential agreement text for discussion in the next round of talks, beginning negotiations on the content. "This is the path we currently face, and I believe it is the normal procedure for any international negotiation; we have agreed to follow it," Zarif said, adding that the draft would be sent to the U.S. after approval by higher authorities. "We will finalize the draft agreement within the next three days."
Regarding the ongoing Iran-U.S. negotiations, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh stated on February 20 local time that "anything is possible" regarding cooperation in the oil and gas sectors. However, he noted that it remains unclear whether formal oil and gas collaboration between Tehran and Washington will commence.
Previously, Iranian Foreign Ministry officials revealed that negotiations with the U.S. include mutual interests in oil and gas, joint油田 development, mineral investments, and aircraft purchases.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre earlier stated that U.S.-Iran talks have "made some progress," but the sides remain "far apart" on key issues. Iran is expected to submit a more specific proposal in the coming weeks, and Trump will continue to assess the progress.
The White House declined to specify whether a negotiation deadline has been set or if military options are under consideration. Jean-Pierre noted that Trump maintains close communication with his national security team, prioritizing U.S. national interests and the safety of military personnel in any decisions involving military action.