US stock index futures were lower in pre-market trading on Friday, February 13. At the time of writing, Dow futures declined by 0.37%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.31%.
Major European indices also showed weakness. Germany's DAX index edged down 0.04%, the UK's FTSE 100 was nearly flat with a 0.01% decrease, France's CAC 40 fell 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.43%.
In commodities, WTI crude oil decreased by 0.78% to $62.35 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.55% to $67.15 per barrel. Reports suggest OPEC+ is leaning towards restoring some oil production increases starting in April. A final decision has not been made, with negotiations expected to continue ahead of the March 1 meeting.
All eyes are on the imminent release of the US January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. According to the Dow Jones consensus survey, economists anticipate the headline CPI year-over-year increase slowed to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in December. If accurate, this key inflation gauge would reach its lowest level since May 2025. On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI (excluding food and energy) are expected to rise 0.3%, matching the previous month's increase. Notably, CPI readings have undershot Wall Street forecasts for three consecutive months. A continued moderation in January's data could bolster Federal Reserve policymakers' confidence in reducing benchmark interest rates later this year without reigniting inflation.
Amid ongoing concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence (AI), software stocks experienced another wave of selling this week following a rebound last Friday. However, Byron Deeter, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, views the significant sell-off in global software stocks, particularly in the US, as a rare opportunity for investors to buy at lower prices. He stated that the software and SaaS sectors are "absolutely in a state of severe overselling." Despite the recent sharp declines, Deeter believes the market turmoil is creating favorable conditions for savvy investors. He also cautioned that significant divergence is expected among software companies with differing growth prospects and fundamentals, rather than a uniform market-wide rebound.
JPMorgan's strategy team has recommended a tactical short position on two-year US Treasury notes, citing resilient US economic growth that may constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to implement substantial interest rate cuts. The team, led by Jay Barry, noted that strong economic fundamentals could make it difficult for a potential new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, to steer the Federal Open Market Committee according to his preferences if confirmed. The upcoming US inflation report is expected to provide fresh clues regarding the Fed's future policy actions. Any signs of easing price pressures could spur demand for policy-sensitive short-term Treasuries. Treasury yields have been volatile this week, influenced by tech stock sell-offs and robust employment data, with market participants closely watching developments regarding the potential new Fed leadership.
Despite a recent pullback from its all-time high of $5,600 per ounce, analysts at ANZ suggest the dip in gold prices may attract new investment. They cite persistent structural support and a lack of signs indicating a trend reversal, forecasting a price target of $5,800 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. ANZ reiterated gold's core role as an "insurance asset" against multiple uncertainties and noted that the retreat from record levels presents an entry opportunity for new capital. Bullish sentiment toward precious metals is widespread among major Wall Street investment banks. While Goldman Sachs projects a year-end 2026 target of $5,400, UBS and JPMorgan offer more aggressive forecasts of $6,200 and $6,300, respectively.
In political news, sources indicate the current administration is considering scaling back certain steel and aluminum tariffs to address mounting inflationary pressures and voter sentiment ahead of the midterm elections. These tariffs have been cited as contributors to consumer affordability challenges and created difficulties for businesses in cost planning. The administration is reportedly reviewing the list of products subject to tariffs and may grant exemptions for some items, opting for more targeted national security investigations on specific goods instead of expanding the tariff list. Countries including the UK, Mexico, Canada, and EU member states could benefit from any relaxation of these US steel and aluminum tariffs.
US markets will be closed on Monday, February 16, in observance of Washington's Birthday (Presidents' Day).
**Individual Stock Movements**
Strong demand for AI computing power and storage drove a robust earnings outlook from
Roku Inc (ROKU.US) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, with its platform business acting as a key growth driver. The company forecast full-year revenue above Wall Street expectations, betting on a recovery in the digital advertising market and accelerated user migration to ad-supported streaming. Q4 sales increased 16.1% year-over-year to $1.395 billion, exceeding consensus estimates. GAAP earnings per share were $0.53, beating analyst expectations by 88.8%. The company provided an optimistic revenue guidance midpoint of $1.2 billion for the next quarter, above the expected $1.17 billion. Its fiscal 2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint is $635 million, higher than the $581 million consensus. For the full 2026 fiscal year, Roku expects revenue midpoint of $5.5 billion, surpassing the market forecast of $5.34 billion. Its stock surged in pre-market trading.
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB.US) reported fourth-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations and provided optimistic 2026 revenue guidance, indicating resilient global travel demand. Q4 revenue reached $2.78 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, beating the analyst consensus of $2.72 billion. This marked the 20th time in the past 21 quarters that the company surpassed Wall Street revenue expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $786 million. However, quarterly net income was $341 million, or 56 cents per share, down from $461 million, or 73 cents per share, a year earlier, and below the expected 66 cents per share. The company attributed the profit decline to a $90 million non-income tax expense and continued investment in new growth initiatives and policy advocacy. Shares gained ground pre-market.
Vale SA (VALE.US) reported Q4 revenue that beat expectations, but a significant impairment on its Canadian nickel assets led to a substantially wider net loss. Revenue rose 9% year-over-year to $11.06 billion, above the analyst consensus of $10.86 billion. The company reported a net loss of $3.844 billion, compared to analyst expectations for a profit of $2.7 billion and a loss of $694 million in the prior-year period. Vale cited a downward revision in long-term nickel price assumptions, triggering a $3.5 billion impairment on nickel assets held by its base metals unit in Canada. The company also recorded a $2.8 billion impact from the write-off of deferred tax assets at a subsidiary. Despite this, the company stated that all business segments delivered strong operational and cost performance, meeting all 2025 guidance targets.
UK banking group NatWest Group PLC (NWG.US) reported Q4 and full-year profits that exceeded expectations and outlined plans to continue leveraging AI for cost reduction and efficiency gains. Pretax profit for the quarter jumped 30% to £1.94 billion ($2.6 billion), surpassing the expected £1.7 billion. This brought full-year profit to £7.7 billion, the highest level since the financial crisis and above analyst forecasts. The net interest margin, a key profitability metric, improved to 2.45% from 2.37% in the previous quarter. The company established a plan to cut costs and boost income through technology over the next three years. It guided for a return on tangible equity above 17% this year, reaching 18% by 2028, and a cost-income ratio below 45%, compared to 48.6% last year. Its shares declined in pre-market trading.
A key economic data release, the US January CPI report, is scheduled for 21:30 Beijing Time.