HK Market Analysis: The "14th Five-Year Plan" Sets Core Directions, Future Market Moves Await Observation

Stock News
Oct 24

Market reactions to significant meetings have been clearly visible, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a strong upward trajectory, just shy of 4,000 points, while the Hang Seng Index also rose by 0.74%, surpassing the key level of 26,000 points. The 90-day tariff truce between the U.S. and China is set to expire on November 9, heightening the urgency for trade discussions scheduled in Malaysia from October 24 to 27. This extended negotiation period is critical, especially with both sides previously revealing their strategies, and it will significantly affect the potential direct talks between the Chinese and U.S. leaders during the upcoming APEC summit. If a meeting occurs, it likely signals a meaningful outcome; otherwise, results may be limited. The current caution in the gold market reflects this wait-and-see approach, as U.S.-China relations remain the primary focus. Comments from Europe, such as Macron’s threats to activate a "nuclear option" against China regarding rare earths, seem largely rhetorical, especially as the EU has been heavily influenced by the U.S. Germany appears more pragmatic, with Foreign Minister Baerbock planning a visit to China this Sunday (October 26). Recent developments in the Netherlands have adversely affected Volkswagen due to a chip shortage, demonstrating the urgency in Germany's response.

The significant meeting yesterday only laid out a framework, and various ministries have come forward with detailed analyses today, prompting funds to take action. Key market focal points include:

1. Economic Growth: The goal of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of medium-developed countries by 2035 suggests a composite economic growth rate of over 4.7% in the next decade. Given China's large economic scale, this growth rate is relatively optimistic, aiming to maintain stable development for the next five years.

2. Core Initiatives: The National Development and Reform Commission has outlined plans for revitalizing China's high-tech industries over the next decade, aiming for the "new economy" to constitute over 18% of GDP by 2024. The Ministry of Science and Technology emphasized developing new algorithms and high-performance computing chips to solidify AI's foundational technologies. High-tech advancements are crucial, moving away from inefficient growth models, which plays a key role in the U.S.-China competition as growth increasingly stems from domestic tech replacements. For instance, after the Ministry of Commerce released surveys on anti-dumping investigations for analog chips, Texas Instruments, the world’s largest analog chip manufacturer, is facing severe market contraction in China, presenting an opportunity for local firms such as HUA HONG SEMI (01347), which saw its shares surge over 13% due to its high stake in analog chips. SMIC (00981) and ASMPT (00522) also benefited significantly, each rising by over 8%, while SHANGHAI FUDAN (01385) climbed nearly 6%. This reflects a reciprocal trade-off in the market as the largest chip equipment maker, Applied Materials, plans to cut 4% of its global workforce. The semiconductor sector ultimately supports AI development, benefiting leading manufacturers like YOFC (06869), which saw a gain exceeding 9%, alongside VSTECS (00856) and ZTE (00763), both increasing over 5%.

The wide-ranging focus on high-tech sectors includes indispensable robotics and intelligent manufacturing, with catalysts like Tesla's recent job listings for its new mass production line Lead indicating expansion in manufacturing roles. Yushu disclosed its progress on IPO guidance, having completed its shareholding restructuring. Top picks like UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880) and Horizon Robotics (09660) surged over 6%.

Autonomous driving is another pivotal area of development; on Thursday (October 23), NVIDIA announced a collaboration with Uber aimed at enhancing self-driving car technologies. Uber’s stock increased by 3.5% following the announcement, which focuses on leveraging real driving data from various scenarios to advance NVIDIA's base models. NVIDIA plans to utilize its DGX Cloud infrastructure to expedite development. If either firm achieves Level 5 autonomy, it will provide a significant competitive advantage. BLACK SESAME (02533) also performed notably, rising over 7%.

The rapid development in technology is anticipated to spur growth in upstream resource sectors, with CHALCO (02600) showing strength for several consecutive days, gaining over 3% today and reaching its highest point since 2010. Other firms mentioned yesterday, including CMOC (03993), as well as copper producers JIANGXI COPPER (00358) and MMG (01208), also rose over 6%. Lithium resource companies like TIANQI LITHIUM (002466) and GANFENGLITHIUM (01772) also showed solid performance.

Vice Minister Han Wenxiu of the Central Financial Office emphasized that modernizing agriculture and rural areas is a significant priority. FIRST TRACTOR (00038) stands out as a core stock; during the "14th Five-Year Plan," over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipeline networks are expected to be constructed or upgraded, requiring additional investments exceeding 5 trillion yuan. Core stock CHINA LESSO (02128) holds a 50% market share in agricultural and municipal plastic piping applications. The company has established production bases in Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, with a new facility in Tanzania recently commencing operations, leading to an over 8% rise in share value today.

Some analysts have noted the absence of financial mentions in the "14th Five-Year Plan." According to Xinhua, a meeting focused on implementing the spirit of the Party's 20th Central Committee Fourth Plenary Session was held on October 24 in Beijing. He Lifeng, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and Director of the Central Financial Commission Office, emphasized high-quality development in finance to accelerate the construction of a financially strong nation. Stability is crucial in banking and insurance, while securities remain flexible. Unfortunately, current market capitalization levels between China and developed countries show significant discrepancies regarding international market influence, whereby the importance of enlarging capacity is clear. Major stocks such as CICC (03908) and CITIC SEC (06030) climbed over 3%.

Sector Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session's communiqué has highlighted the goal of becoming a "strong aerospace nation," elevating it to a historically unprecedented strategic level. During the "14th Five-Year Plan," commercial aerospace development will be pivotal, covering space programs, satellite constellations, and 6G technologies. The competition in this field between China and the U.S. will intensify, with SpaceX's Starship significantly improving payload capacities and reducing costs through recent tests, resulting in over 10,000 satellites launched. Last week, domestic satellite network BeiDou launched 12 satellite groups, and large-scale bidding is currently underway. Yuanxin also resumed launches last week, with second-round financing ongoing; a mission to complete a network of 1,296 satellites is imperative. Domestic commercial rocket firms are hastening their IPO progress, with Star River Dynamics completing its IPO guidance registration on October 22, while Blue Arrow, Interstellar Glory, CAS Space, and Tianbing Technology have also reached the IPO counseling stage, collectively valued at over 100 billion yuan. Improved production capacity following IPO financing integration with the deployment of new reusable rockets is expected to alleviate industry bottlenecks, with several significant launches approaching for the Zhuque 3, Lijian 2, Tianlong 3, and Phaeton 2 rockets. Key domestic stocks in this area include USPACE TECH (01725), APT SATELLITE (01045), and CHINA AEROSPACE (00031).

Stock Spotlight: JLMAG (06680): Actively positioned in emerging markets, showing significant profit enhancement. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 5.373 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.16%; net profit attributable to shareholders reached 515 million yuan, a 161.81% rise. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters stands at 19.49%, up 9.46 percentage points year-on-year. This surge in profitability is driven by strong order volumes leading to increased sales of its main products, with gross profit margins rising for four consecutive quarters to reach 25.3% in a single quarter, the highest since Q1 2021. As a leading rare earth permanent magnet manufacturer worldwide, the company has established a production capacity of 40,000 tons per year and aims to expand to 60,000 tons by 2027. During the first three quarters of 2025, the prices of rare earth raw materials saw steady increases, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 470,000 yuan per ton, up 22.6% year-on-year. The new production capacity is being steadily released, showing a sufficient utilization rate. Sales revenue from the new energy vehicles and auto parts sector reached 2.615 billion yuan, with product sales increasing by 23.46% year-on-year; revenue from energy-efficient variable frequency air conditioner products amounted to 1.446 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.48% year-on-year sales increase. The company has ample orders in hand for Q4. JLMAG is also strategically investing in humanoid robots and low-altitude aviation markets, collaborating with leading global tech companies for the research and development of humanoid robot magnetic components, with small batch deliveries of robot motor rotors and magnetic materials occurring in the first three quarters, along with low-altitude products. The strategic importance of rare earth materials is being reassessed, and prices are expected to continue rising, with sales volume and value increasing, ensuring the company’s performance maintains steady growth while opening up future growth opportunities in emerging sectors.

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