According to sources, the 2025 Suining International Lithium Battery Industry Conference was held from September 19-20. Reports indicate that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will deepen supply-side structural reforms and consolidate industrial chain advantages. Focusing on medium and long-term development trends in the new battery industry, MIIT will research and compile the "15th Five-Year Plan for New Battery Industry Development," strengthening industrial development coordination and systematic planning. The ministry will actively explore regional coordinated development models, guiding different regions to develop lithium battery industry planning and layout based on local conditions with differentiated and specialized approaches.
Industry experts state that MIIT's announcement not only clarifies the strategic importance the nation places on this industry, but also sends clear signals about preventing low-level repetitive construction and optimizing industrial layout. Data shows that global lithium battery demand compound annual growth rate will maintain above 25% from 2025-2030, with market size expected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan. Under dual drivers of policy and demand, enterprises with resource advantages, technical barriers, and regional synergy advantages will emerge as leaders.
Policy-wise, on September 5, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026 Stable Growth Action Plan," clearly stating "From 2025 to 2026, the average growth rate of added value for above-scale computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing will be 7%, and after adding lithium batteries, photovoltaics and component manufacturing fields, the electronic information manufacturing industry's annual average revenue growth rate will reach above 5%." This policy provides clear development targets and policy support for the lithium battery industry, undoubtedly enhancing market confidence in the industry's long-term development.
Recently, MIIT and seven other departments jointly issued the "Automotive Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," proposing to strive for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, including approximately 15.5 million new energy vehicle sales, providing broad market space for the lithium battery industry as well. Additionally, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the "Automotive OEM Supplier Payment Standard Initiative," requiring payment terms not to exceed 60 days from acceptance date, stabilizing lithium battery enterprises' order expectations and benefiting capacity planning and raw material procurement.
In terms of market demand, current power battery market, energy storage market, and new energy vehicle market demand growth exceeds expectations, providing a solid foundation for the lithium battery industry. Furthermore, the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization also brings new growth points for the lithium battery industry.
Currently, domestic solid-state battery industrialization progress has significantly accelerated, entering the "technical verification period." Multiple automakers plan to achieve mass production of all-solid-state batteries around 2027. The intensive landing of related pilot production lines will drive industry technology upgrades, such as technological breakthroughs by enterprises like CATL (pilot line yield rates exceeding 90%) accelerating industrialization processes.
It's reported that solid-state batteries, as next-generation battery technology, have significantly higher unit lithium consumption than traditional liquid batteries. This characteristic will directly drive structural growth in high-end lithium resource demand, especially against the backdrop of accelerated volume release in 2026 vehicle installations, bringing broader development space for the lithium battery industry.
Investment recommendations suggest focusing on the lithium battery main line: energy storage and commercial vehicle demand continues to exceed expectations, with volume and price potentially rising together in 2025-26. Key battery leaders include CATL, EVE Energy, and Sunwoda. For materials, focus on Tinci Materials, Do-Fluoride, BTR, Shangtai Technology, and Fulinjingong.
For solid-state batteries: equipment has high certainty, with whole-line and single-product each having advantages. Materials in lithium sulfide, lithium metal, and aluminum-plastic film directions are relatively certain. Recommended focuses include CATL, Lead Intelligent, Naura, Hongtech, Liyuanheng, Haichen Pharmaceutical, Huasheng Lithium, Shanghai Xiba, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, and Zhongyi Technology.
Current analysis suggests that some segments of the lithium battery sector are experiencing dual benefits of price bottoming and recovery plus slowing capacity expansion, with pessimistic market expectations gradually being digested. As enterprises advance cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures and the traditional peak season arrives in the second half, industry profitability already shows stabilization signs with upward elasticity. Meanwhile, new technologies like solid-state batteries are accelerating implementation, potentially reshaping industry competitive landscape, with enterprises having new technology layout advantages potentially leading recovery.
Other analysis indicates that the lithium battery sector has realized the logic of exceeding 2025 market demand expectations, with current sector core contradiction shifting to whether 2026 demand expectations can be further revised upward based on 20% growth rate. Subsequent attention should focus on three major signals: first, fourth-quarter energy storage bidding conditions, which will reflect 2026 installation data; second, battery enterprise bidding at end of November corresponding to 2026 procurement expectations; third, continuation of policies like 2026 automotive trade-in programs and lithium battery production scheduling information.
Related Hong Kong-listed enterprises:
TIANQI LITHIUM (09696): Recently, research institutions EVTank and Ivy Economic Research Institute jointly with China Battery Industry Research Institute released the "China Metallic Lithium Industry Development White Paper (2025)." According to the white paper, global solid-state battery leading enterprises have begun layout and research on metallic lithium for solid-state battery anode materials. As all-solid-state batteries achieve large-scale commercialization and metallic lithium anode penetration rates increase, this will open a huge incremental market for metallic lithium. TIANQI LITHIUM has 600 tons of metallic lithium capacity with 1,000 tons under construction, ranking second globally.
GANFENGLITHIUM (01772): GANFENGLITHIUM stated on interactive platforms that the company's energy storage cells have achieved large-scale mass production and established long-term stable supply cooperation with multiple industry-leading enterprises. Currently, the company's energy storage cell capacity is at full production. Under current explosive energy storage demand, the company leverages integrated layout to ensure stable delivery to customers. Additionally, GANFENGLITHIUM stated that the company continues development in the power battery field, with solid-state batteries already trial-installed and mass-produced in some vehicle models, and applied to well-known drone and eVTOL enterprises. The company is accelerating industrialization processes in new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and other fields.
CALB (03931): In mid-September, research coverage maintained positive earnings forecasts for CALB (03931) driven by scale effects and cost reduction efficiency improvements, maintaining "Buy" rating and raising target price to HK$29.50 per share. The group raised next year's shipment forecast, with new power battery projects and energy storage battery demand both providing support. Particularly, the group's energy storage batteries are currently in supply shortage, and capacity release will bring greater contributions. In cost reduction, the group's input-output ratio and yield rates have significantly improved, offsetting increased R&D expense impacts.
CATL (03750): In late September, research coverage was published after visiting CATL (03750) during the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, learning that current electric vehicle and ESS production are both at full capacity with strong demand, especially overseas ESS markets. Assuming 10% increase in battery shipments for 2026-2027, earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised by 9% each. Target prices for CATL A and H shares were raised from RMB 390 and HK$535 to RMB 490 and HK$670 respectively, reaffirming outperform ratings.