On February 25, before the war that led to the closure of the strait's shipping routes began, a family was photographed against the backdrop of a coastal dock in Fujairah, a city in the northern UAE. Martin Izagirre Salgado keeps a souvenir—pieces of shrapnel from a liquefied petroleum gas tanker attacked two years ago while he was working in the Red Sea. Four missiles exploded near his vessel, with shrapnel raining down on the deck. "I kept some fragments of the shrapnel at home," said Salgado, who has been a seafarer since 2021. For commercial sailors like Salgado, no promises from President Trump can convince them to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has pledged government-backed insurance policies and naval escorts to ensure safe passage. However, Iran's threat to attack all vessels in the region presents a risk far exceeding any offer of support. "As long as they are firing rockets or drones at merchant ships, this sense of insecurity will persist," he told CNN in an interview aboard an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. Martin Izagirre Salgado is currently on a liquefied gas carrier bound for Mozambique. On Wednesday, not a single oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow channel, running along Iran's southern coast, typically sees over 60 vessels daily, carrying 20% of the world's oil shipments. Currently, the Persian Gulf is congested with tankers and other ships unable to depart, including Salgado's vessel, which is anchored off the coast of Iraq. Major shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have halted most cargo bookings destined for Persian Gulf countries. Since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran last weekend, marine insurers have withdrawn war-related coverage for shipping firms. The entire global supply chain risks being upended, which would drive up costs for businesses and their customers. The de facto maritime blockade has already pushed oil prices above $80, reaching their highest level since August 2024. Trump's plan aims to reassure shipping companies of safe transit through the strait. However, Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, stated he is unaware of any shipping firm willing to take that risk. "I have no evidence that [these promises] can be fulfilled," said Seroka, who previously worked in the Middle East division of American President Lines. "Based on my years in the industry, I don't see how this is possible. I also don't believe we can put people at greater risk, making them sitting ducks on the open sea." Seroka indicated that, after discussions with shipping executives, only a ceasefire would allow commercial vessels to resume transit. "I see no willingness to transport cargo and expose crews and assets to danger," he added. Risks Extend Beyond Tankers Sanne Manders, President of global shipping logistics firm Flexport, noted that the primary concern for shipping companies is crew safety. Even with insurance pledges, they are reluctant to risk physical vessels. "These companies [want to ensure] vessel safety because they are valuable assets, right? Worth hundreds of millions of dollars, so they won't risk them for a single commercial transaction," Manders said. Furthermore, there is widespread skepticism about the US Navy's capacity to provide sufficient escorts for merchant ships—given that the strait typically sees over 60 tankers transiting daily. "Naval escorts can help reduce the threat to protected vessels," said Jacob Larsen, Chief Safety and Security Officer at BIMCO, the Danish shipping association. "However, protecting all tankers in the area currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic, as it would require a massive number of warships and other military assets." A satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz from January 11, 2025. This strategic waterway connects Iran with Oman, linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and a former CIA analyst, pointed out that during the Iran-Iraq War, the US military provided convoy services for tankers from oil-rich Gulf states. But she believes this solution is not viable now because those countries were not under direct attack at the time. "We were not an active party in the conflict then," she said. "Now we are a primary actor. We are no longer in a supporting escort role." Rising Global Shipping Costs In the short term, shipping companies are facing pressure from rising fuel prices. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world's largest container shipping line, has announced a bunker surcharge on all cargoes until at least April. These costs will ultimately be passed on to businesses and consumers. But if vessels cannot resume transit, larger problems will follow. A major concern is that the crisis could severely disrupt global supply chains, similar to the peak of the pandemic. Misplaced empty containers, vessel congestion outside ports, and other logistical issues previously led to significant price increases for various goods. "The longer the delays, the greater the likelihood of port congestion," said Flexport's Manders, noting that ships originally bound for the Persian Gulf will be rerouted elsewhere. "Ports, especially in Asia, are already quite congested... This will impact global shipping," he added. US-allied Gulf states also face potential supply shortages. This is critical because the six Gulf Arab nations—Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—import approximately 85% of their food. The scene from Martin Izagirre Salgado's vessel during its last berth at Khor al-Zubair, Iraq. Salgado's ship has been anchored off the coast of Iraq since February 26, about 400 nautical miles from the strait. It is still waiting to load cargo before departing for Bangladesh. His contract was originally set to expire on Friday. He still hopes he is just one day away from returning home to Spain. "What we feel right now is trapped, with no way to predict when our contracts will end," he said.