GTHT has released a research report maintaining its "Buy" rating on GCL TECH (03800), anticipating the company’s 2025-2027 BPS to be RMB 1.17, 1.22, and 1.28 per share, respectively. Based on comparable companies, it assigns a 1.2x PB for 2026, resulting in a target price of RMB 1.59 (converted at an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.92 RMB). The company announced that for Q3 2025, its photovoltaic materials business is expected to yield a profit of approximately RMB 960 million, which includes after-tax proceeds of around RMB 640 million from the sale of an associate company. The unaudited adjusted EBITDA is expected to be about RMB 1.41 billion.
The report highlighted a recovery in polysilicon prices, indicating early signs of effectiveness in anti-competitive efforts. For Q3 2025, the average selling price of granular silicon (including tax) was RMB 42.12/kg, an increase of RMB 9.2/kg from the previous quarter. According to Infolink Consulting, the average price of granular silicon reached RMB 50/kg on October 15 (assuming a tax rate of 13%, the pre-tax price would be RMB 44.25/kg), suggesting further upside potential relative to the Q3 average price.
Looking ahead to Q4 2025 and 2026, we expect prices to remain stable with gradual growth, contributing to continued improvement in the profitability of the company's polysilicon business. The report also noted that the average production cash cost of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was RMB 24.16/kg (including R&D), a decrease of RMB 1.15/kg quarter-on-quarter. The production capacity of granular silicon possesses advantages in energy consumption, fully complying with the new energy consumption standards outlined in the draft mandatory national standard published by the National Standards Committee on September 16, 2025.
On October 10, the company announced plans regarding subscription matters, intending to use part of the proceeds for mergers and acquisitions to acquire target companies or assets within mainland China to increase polysilicon capacity. We believe that industry consolidation will help achieve a balance between supply and demand, further promoting price stabilization and recovery.