Abstract

MDU Resources will release its quarterly results on February 05, 2026 Pre-Market, and this preview consolidates current-quarter forecasts and recent performance to frame expectations for revenue, margins, and earnings.

Market Forecast

Consensus forecasts indicate MDU Resources’ current-quarter revenue at USD 563.66 million, with EBIT at USD 98.71 million and adjusted EPS at USD 0.36; year-over-year, revenue is forecast to decrease by 28.70%, EBIT to decrease by 7.64%, and adjusted EPS to increase by 7.13. Highlights center on regular operations as the core revenue driver and the near-term outlook on margin resilience, with emphasis on gross profit margin and net profit margin trends. The most promising segment is regular operations, with the latest quarter’s segment revenue at USD 319.50 million, though the year-over-year growth data is not provided.

Last Quarter Review

MDU Resources’ last quarter posted revenue of USD 315.10 million, a gross profit margin of 36.08%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 18.31 million, a net profit margin of 5.81%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.09, with year-over-year adjusted EPS down by 71.88%. A notable highlight was quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 32.88%, indicating sequential earnings recovery despite revenue pressures. Main business performance was dominated by regular operations revenue of USD 319.50 million, while non-regulated business contributed USD 0.30 million; year-over-year growth details were not available.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business—Regular Operations

Regular operations remain the anchor of MDU Resources’ revenue base and profitability profile, and market attention focuses on whether this core segment can sustain margins amid input cost variability and demand seasonality. With last quarter’s gross profit margin at 36.08%, investors will gauge whether the company can maintain margin discipline through cost control initiatives and operational efficiency. Revenue forecast of USD 563.66 million implies a mixed backdrop, as the year-over-year decline in revenue suggests pricing or volume constraints; however, the EBIT forecast of USD 98.71 million suggests operating earnings resilience, which could reflect improved mix and cost pass-through mechanisms. The uplift in forecast EPS to USD 0.36 points to potential benefit from operating leverage and efficient expense management, and the quarterly cadence will be crucial given typical winter season dynamics for utility-related operations and construction services within the portfolio.

Largest Growth Potential—Operational Efficiency and Margin Management

The principal near-term growth lever is margin management across the company’s operating footprint, given last quarter’s 36.08% gross profit margin and 5.81% net profit margin. The forecast EPS increase of 7.13% year-over-year, despite expected top-line decline, indicates a focus on improving unit economics and optimizing SG&A and project execution. Execution quality in regular operations, including bid discipline, project sequencing, and contingency planning for weather impacts, can enhance EBIT conversion even as revenue faces cyclicality. Monitoring the gap between gross margin and net margin will be central: sustaining gross margin while narrowing the drag from interest and overhead could underpin EPS and support valuation into the quarter.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term trajectory will likely hinge on three interlinked factors: revenue trajectory versus forecast, margin stability, and earnings quality. A print near USD 563.66 million on revenue with EBIT around USD 98.71 million would validate consensus assumptions, but any upside surprise in gross profit margin would be a positive signal for future quarters. EPS sensitivity to interest expense and tax rate could influence the headline number; with adjusted EPS expected at USD 0.36, deviations will likely be scrutinized for their sources—operational versus financial. Investors will also watch for commentary on order backlog, pricing discipline, and cost containment measures, which collectively determine visibility on margins and volume through the remainder of the fiscal year.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing institutional stance appears predominantly bullish. A recent rating from a major U.S. investment bank reaffirmed a Buy rating on MDU Resources with a price target of USD 21.00, highlighting strategic positioning and growth prospects as supportive of earnings stabilization and margin improvement. The bullish view emphasizes cost control, operational focus in regular operations, and potential for EPS to outperform relative to the headline revenue decline. In this context, the majority opinion underscores confidence in margin durability and earnings resilience, anticipating that near-term volatility in revenue will be counterbalanced by disciplined execution and favorable mix.