Today (October 15), the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159876), which encompasses leading companies in the non-ferrous metals industry, saw its intraday price drop by as much as 2% before recovering above water level. The ETF is now trading up 0.45% with real-time turnover exceeding 79 million yuan, showing active trading!
Shenzhen Stock Exchange data shows that the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159876) has attracted continuous capital inflows over the past 5 days, totaling 305 million yuan. This reflects market confidence in the sector's future prospects, with funds actively entering to secure positions!
Among constituent stocks, Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co.,Ltd. hit the daily limit, while Shenhuo Co. and Shenghe Resources rose over 5%. Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, Yahua Group, Chifeng Gold and other stocks followed suit with gains.
On the policy front, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non-ferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)," officially ushering the industry into a new phase of "institutional support + structural prosperity." Combined with the Federal Reserve's formal initiation of a new rate-cutting cycle at its September meeting, the global liquidity environment is expected to see another turning point. Industry professionals point out that the resonance between policy and cycles may bring new opportunities for non-ferrous metals:
1. Monetary Attributes: "Dollar Anchor" Loosening, Reshaping Non-ferrous Metal Pricing
The foundation of this round of non-ferrous metals bull market is deeply rooted in a broader macroeconomic context - the long-term revaluation of the global monetary system and dollar credit. The continuous over-issuance of global currencies, the major trend of dollar weakening, and the Fed's rate-cutting cycle will continue to drive up precious metal prices represented by gold. Combined with countries' strategic metal resource reserve demands amid deglobalization, non-ferrous metals will be the main force in this round of commodity bull market.
As the "anchor" for global asset pricing, fluctuations in dollar credit are most directly reflected in gold, but extend beyond gold. Recently, non-ferrous metals represented by gold, silver, and copper have all shown strong performance. Industry professionals suggest that the first key to understanding this round of non-ferrous metal market may be to step out of the pure "cyclical goods" framework and examine non-ferrous metals from a "hard currency" perspective. In an era of global interest rate decline, their value anchor is quietly shifting from short-term industrial supply and demand to long-term monetary credit.
2. Commodity Attributes: Limited Supply + Demand Release, Tight Supply-Demand Balance
(1) On the supply side, global discoveries of new copper mines are limited, capital expenditure is insufficient, and refined copper capacity release is slow. Combined with an accident at the world's second-largest copper mine (Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine), this may lead to sharply tightened global copper mine supply expectations for the next two years, pushing up copper metal prices. Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is approaching the "ceiling," overseas expansion is constrained by energy and infrastructure, and global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is below 3%. Small metals like molybdenum, antimony, and gallium face resource depletion and investment shortfall issues.
(2) On the demand side, a "new engine" centered on AI and new energy is starting up strongly. Data center construction, power infrastructure upgrades (such as grid reconstruction), new energy vehicles, energy storage, photovoltaics, 5G, aerospace and other fields create rigid demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, etc. Policies also clearly state "expanding high-end applications of high-strength aluminum materials, high-conductivity copper cables, magnesium alloy components," which is expected to drive consumption upgrades in bulk metals.
Technological innovation begins with materials. Fifteen years ago, real estate and infrastructure were core drivers of China's economy, accounting for over 30% and 50% respectively in copper and aluminum demand structures. With recent economic structural transformation, real estate and infrastructure demand proportions have significantly declined, while new energy industries now account for over 15% of copper demand and over 20% of aluminum demand. The driving forces of industrial demand have undergone tremendous changes.
Looking ahead, industry professionals believe that non-ferrous metals, as globally-priced commodities, are the main force in this round of commodity bull market. On one hand, driven by medium to long-term capital expenditure cycles, non-ferrous metals have entered a major price upward cycle with medium to long-term supply constraints. On the other hand, the continuous upward trend in global manufacturing investment cycles, combined with strategic metal resource reserve demands amid deglobalization, will continue to boost demand for non-ferrous metals. Currently overlaid with expectations of domestic macroeconomic recovery, the logic is further strengthened. Under multiple overlapping logics, non-ferrous metals may become core varieties in this slow bull market. Over the next one to two years, industrial non-ferrous metals, minor metals, and gold are particularly favored.
【"Metallic Heart" of Future Industries, "Golden Blood" of Modern Industry】
Different non-ferrous metals have varying prosperity levels, rhythms, and driving points, making differentiation inevitable. If bullish on the non-ferrous metals sector, a relatively easy approach is to better capture the sector's beta performance through comprehensive coverage. The Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141), which encompass leading companies in the non-ferrous metals industry, passively track the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index. The index has sector weightings of 27.6% for copper, 14.5% for gold, 13.1% for aluminum, 10.4% for rare earths, and 8.4% for lithium. Compared to investing in single metal industries, this can provide risk diversification and is suitable as part of an investment portfolio allocation.
Risk Warning: The Non-ferrous Metals ETF and its feeder funds passively track the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index, which has a base date of 2013.12.31 and was published on 2015.7.13. The index's returns over the past 5 complete years were: 2020: 35.84%; 2021: 35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: 2.96%. Index constituent stocks are adjusted according to index compilation rules, and historical backtesting performance does not predict future index performance. Individual stocks mentioned in this article are for display purposes only, and stock descriptions do not constitute investment advice in any form, nor do they represent holding information or trading activities of any fund managed by the fund manager. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. Appropriateness matching opinions should be based on sales institutions. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors must take responsibility for any autonomous investment decisions. Additionally, any views, analyses, and predictions in this article do not constitute investment advice in any form to readers, nor do they bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by using this article's content. Fund investment involves risks, past fund performance does not represent future performance, and performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee fund performance. Fund investment should be approached with caution.
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