Evercore ISI Forecasts Cash Flow Strain for Hyperscalers in AI Spending Surge, Microsoft Stands Alone

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According to data from Evercore ISI, during the significant expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending, Microsoft (MSFT.US) is projected to be the only hyperscale cloud provider among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks to achieve free cash flow growth in 2026. Evercore notes that Amazon (AMZN.US), Google (GOOGL.US), and Meta Platforms (META.US) are expected to see year-over-year declines in free cash flow by 2026. The free cash flow of another major cloud provider, Oracle (ORCL.US), which is not part of the "Magnificent Seven," is also anticipated to decrease. In contrast, Microsoft's free cash flow is forecast to grow by 5% in 2026. The other two tech giants in the "Magnificent Seven," NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and Apple (AAPL.US), are projected to achieve double-digit free cash flow growth. The hyperscale capital expenditure for these industry tech giants is expected to increase by 58% in 2026, surpassing $700 billion. Analysts at Evercore, led by Amit Daryanani, stated in an investor report, "The question remains how long hyperscalers can sustain this level of investment, especially in cases where free cash flow falls below zero. Based on forward free cash flow multiples, Apple remains attractive within the group, trading below 30 times its free cash flow for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, while the 'Magnificent Seven' currently trade at an average of over 95 times free cash flow." The analysts also pointed out, "Over the past three years, the total capital expenditure of the 'Magnificent Seven' plus Oracle accounted for about 40% or less of total operating cash flow. However, in the 2025 calendar year, this proportion has risen to approximately 50% and is expected to reach over 60% in the 2026 and 2027 calendar years. Although AI-driven demand provides a compelling rationale for long-term investment, the short-term consequences include weaker free cash flow, constrained capital returns, and increased sensitivity to financing conditions. If debt becomes a more significant source of funding for infrastructure expansion, we anticipate investor focus will shift towards assets with lower capital intensity and a greater emphasis on return on invested capital and capital allocation efficiency."

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