Duolingo Plunges Nearly 30% on Weak Guidance; CEO Prioritizes User Growth Over Short-Term Monetization

Deep News
Nov 07

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) shares plummeted nearly 30% during Thursday's trading session after the company issued weaker-than-expected guidance in its Q3 earnings report. The language-learning platform emphasized its focus on user growth rather than immediate monetization.

**Key Q3 Financial Highlights:**

- **Revenue**: Duolingo's Q3 revenue surged 41% year-over-year to $272 million, surpassing analysts' consensus estimate of $260 million (LSEG data). - **Total Bookings**: Increased 33% YoY to approximately $282 million, also exceeding expectations. - **Net Income**: Jumped to $292.2 million from $23.4 million in the prior-year quarter, boosted by a one-time tax benefit of $222.7 million. - **EPS**: Reported at $5.95 compared to $0.49 a year ago. - **Paid Subscribers**: Grew to 11.5 million, above the estimated 11.38 million. - **Daily Active Users (DAUs)**: Reached 50.5 million, slightly below the projected 51.2 million. - **Monthly Active Users (MAUs)**: Totaled 135.3 million, missing the 137.4 million estimate.

**Guidance Disappoints**: - **Q4 Bookings Forecast**: $329.5–$335.5 million, below the $344.3 million consensus. - **Q4 Adjusted EBITDA**: Projected at $75.4–$78.8 million, under the $80.5 million expectation. - **Full-Year Revenue Outlook**: Raised to $1.0275–$1.0315 billion from $1.01–$1.02 billion previously.

CEO and co-founder Luis von Ahn stated that the company has "clearly shifted priorities toward user growth" in recent months. He noted strategic adjustments toward long-term projects, including AI-driven features like interactive video calls and rapid course development, while maintaining a freemium model with tiers like ad-free "Super Duolingo" and AI-powered "Duolingo Max."

Von Ahn highlighted Duolingo’s unique profitability in AI applications but acknowledged trade-offs between monetization and growth. Paid subscriptions soared 34% YoY in Q3, partly driven by a marketing partnership with Luckin Coffee in China.

Addressing competition, management dismissed concerns about Apple’s AirPods translation feature, emphasizing Duolingo’s role in comprehensive language education.

KeyBanc downgraded DUOL to "Sector Weight" from "Overweight," citing delayed financial impact from long-term investments. Analyst Justin Patterson noted that material gains from these initiatives may take "multiple quarters" to materialize.

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