The United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, intensifying market fears that US forces might seize Kharg Island, a crucial hub for Iranian oil exports. Reports indicate that the Trump administration has dispatched additional ground troops to the region.
According to analysis by Javier Blas, a Bloomberg columnist specializing in energy and commodities, President Trump is considering the seizure of Kharg Island as a bargaining chip to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, such an operation carries substantial military risks and is unlikely to achieve its intended results quickly. Damage to Kharg Island's oil facilities or retaliatory actions by Iran could trigger a surge in international oil prices, potentially dealing a severe blow to the global economy.
Kharg Island, located in the northwestern Persian Gulf, measures approximately 6 kilometers long and 3 kilometers wide. It handles about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. The island has long been a point of interest for the United States; during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, President Carter reportedly considered bombing or seizing it. Decades earlier, while promoting his book "The Art of the Deal," Donald Trump also suggested capturing the island.
Kharg Island is not Iran's only export channel. It typically exports around 1.7 million barrels per day. Blas argues that seizing the island would not completely shut down Iran's export capabilities. Iran maintains alternative terminals, such as Jask on the Arabian Sea, and others within the Persian Gulf like Lavan, Sirri, and Qeshm islands. Collectively, these facilities could export 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day in an emergency. Additionally, Iran exports about 1 million barrels per day of natural gas liquids and refined products through terminals like Assaluyeh, Bandar Mahshahr, and Abadan. To fully cut off Iran's oil revenue, the U.S. would need to control all these outlets.
Even if Iran's exports were drastically reduced, Blas notes that the impact may not align with the White House's timeline. During the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign from 2020 to 2021, Iran's crude exports remained below 250,000 barrels per day for months, and did not exceed 750,000 barrels per day for over two years. Yet, Tehran did not capitulate. The White House, unlike Iran, lacks the advantage of time and would need to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened within days or weeks, not months, to avoid a global economic collapse due to soaring oil prices. By the fourth week of a conflict, Iran could still be exporting at least 1.5 million barrels per day of crude and other products, generating significant revenue.
From a military perspective, capturing Kharg Island is highly risky. The island is only about 25 kilometers from the Iranian mainland, making invading forces vulnerable to coastal artillery. U.S. military experts outline three potential assault methods: amphibious landing, helicopter insertion, or paratrooper deployment—each carrying significant dangers. An amphibious assault would expose U.S. ships to concentrated Iranian fire while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Airborne operations would face intense anti-air and ground defenses. Even if successful, U.S. troops could become stranded on the island, vulnerable to counterattacks, and the occupation might not prevent Iran from targeting U.S. vessels using coastal facilities.
The energy market faces considerable uncertainty. Destruction of Kharg Island's oil infrastructure would severely disrupt global oil supply. More critically, Iran may retaliate. Experts suggest that Iran's policy is to respond in kind—or escalate—if attacked. Strikes on Iranian oil facilities could prompt retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, triggering a chain reaction and extreme volatility in energy markets.
In conclusion, Kharg Island has fascinated Trump for decades. However, his apparent lack of understanding regarding the island's significance to Iran and the potential consequences of its loss may lead to miscalculations. His recent threats—first to restrict the island, then issuing a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the strait or face attacks on Iran's power grid—reflect a pattern of historical disregard that could result in regrettable decisions.