Huajin Securities released a research report stating that space-based computing power, both domestically and internationally, is entering a phase of large-scale implementation. According to data from Research and Markets, the global on-orbit data center market is projected to reach $39.09 billion by 2035, with a ten-year compound annual growth rate of 67.4%. The high energy consumption characteristics of these centers create a rigid demand for "lightweight, high-efficiency" energy sources, which aligns perfectly with the technical advantages of space photovoltaics. Gallium arsenide batteries, with their mature technology and stability, currently serve as the core support for space photovoltaics; simultaneously, as the number of satellites, on-orbit data demand, and space-based computing capacity grow rapidly, opportunities in specific segments are becoming prominent, with p-type ultra-thin HJT and perovskite photovoltaic products holding future growth potential. The main views of Huajin Securities are as follows:

Space computing power is being implemented on a large scale, driving simultaneous expansion in photovoltaic demand. In May of this year, China launched the world's first space computing constellation into orbit, and in December, SpaceX sent NVIDIA's H100 GPU into space. Elon Musk disclosed a technically feasible path: planning to launch 100 gigawatts of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit annually. Concurrently, Beijing proposed constructing a terawatt-power space data center in a 700-800 km dawn-dusk orbit, outlining a clear "three-step" strategy for 2025-2035, further upgrading this scenario from a concept to a long-term plan. Meanwhile, tech giants are accelerating their布局——Jeff Bezos predicts that terawatt-level space data centers will be built within the next 10-20 years. These actions are propelling space computing power into a phase of large-scale implementation.

Data from Research and Markets indicates the global on-orbit data center market will reach $39.09 billion by 2035 (CAGR 67.4%). Its high energy consumption profile creates a strict requirement for "lightweight, high-efficiency" energy, which dovetails deeply with the technical strengths of space photovoltaics—satellites in low Earth orbit experience sunlight 60%-70% of the time, with annual utilization hours ranging from 5,000 to 6,000, while geostationary orbit surpasses 8,000 hours annually. Furthermore, space photovoltaics exhibit outstanding radiation resistance; over fifteen years in the space environment, the International Space Station's solar panels maintained 88% efficiency. This characteristic aligns highly with the demands of space applications, directly opening up the commercial potential for photovoltaics in the space sector.

Gallium arsenide batteries, leveraging mature technology and stability, form the current core support for space photovoltaics. The application of gallium arsenide batteries is highly concentrated in the aerospace sector, accounting for over 90% of use, with the global market size reaching $425 million in 2024. According to statistics from QYResearch, this is expected to grow to $590 million by 2031, a CAGR of 4.3%. The Chinese market was approximately RMB 5 billion in 2022 and is expected to exceed RMB 12 billion by 2025. Classified by junction type, gallium arsenide batteries are divided into single-junction, double-junction, triple-junction, and quadruple-junction types, with triple-junction solar cells dominating the market, holding over 90% share. Conversion efficiency has seen breakthroughs, with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's six-junction tandem cell achieving 47.1% efficiency under concentrated light. Simultaneously, as technology advances, costs are gradually decreasing; for instance, NREL's dynamic hydride vapor phase epitaxy method holds promise for reducing III-V solar cell costs to the $0.2-$0.8 per watt range. Overall, the gallium arsenide battery market is expected to further expand into new fields and applications as technology continues to advance and costs decline.

P-type ultra-thin heterojunction (HJT) offers distinct advantages in thinning. In cost-sensitive applications with shorter lifespans, such as low-orbit satellites, battery thinning can reduce launch payload and save fuel. P-type cells exhibit superior radiation resistance compared to n-type; compared to PERC cells, p-type ultra-thin HJT is better suited for thinning and flexible structures, which can lower launch costs and improve space utilization. Current mainstream PERC cells are about 130μm thick, while the p-type ultra-thin HJT cells delivered by Risen Energy are approximately 50-70μm thick, with potential for further thinning. To date, Risen Energy's p-type ultra-thin heterojunction products have a three-year shipment history, with cumulative shipments numbering in the tens of thousands. Customers are distributed in Europe and America. The company's specialized products delivered in volume all utilize crystalline silicon heterojunction technology. The company is actively developing R&D reserves for tandem cell technology; currently, the perovskite/crystalline silicon heterojunction tandem solar cell developed by its global photovoltaic research institute has achieved a conversion efficiency of 30.99%. The company is advancing technical cooperation with leading perovskite enterprises on perovskite/crystalline silicon heterojunction tandem cells, positioning itself for next-generation high-efficiency battery technology.

Perovskite's performance advantages break through traditional space photovoltaic bottlenecks. Perovskite solar cells, leveraging quantifiable performance benefits, are overcoming the limitations of traditional space photovoltaic technologies, emerging as a core energy solution suited to the demands of space computing. In terms of core performance, their lightweight and high-efficiency characteristics are particularly outstanding, and their flexible form factor allows for the fabrication of "deployable solar arrays," which can significantly reduce spacecraft launch costs. Meanwhile, the efficiency of single-junction perovskite cells has exceeded 25%, and all-perovskite tandem structures exhibit only a 10% efficiency degradation under space radiation doses of 10¹² protons/cm², demonstrating superior radiation resistance compared to traditional III-V multi-junction cells. A team from the Institute of Semiconductors, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has developed a perovskite battery prototype with a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 27.2% and improved stability. GCL Tech's Kunshan GW-level production line saw large-size modules roll off the line on October 29; GCL Perovskite's world-first GW-level line has commenced operations; Microquanta Semiconductor released a certified 2.88m², 509.21W module, marking a step towards large-scale commercialization; by 2026, companies like Renshuo New Energy and CATL are also expected to follow with GW-level line production.

Investment recommendations. As satellite numbers, on-orbit data demand, and space-based computing capacity grow rapidly, opportunities in specific segments are prominent. P-type ultra-thin HJT and perovskite photovoltaic products have future growth potential. It is advisable to track companies implementing new technologies and绑定 to specific scenarios, focusing on Risen Energy (300118.SZ), PIESAT (688066.SH), GCL TECH (03800), Junda Technology (002865.SZ), and Topray Solar (002218.SZ), as well as leading tandem cell turnkey equipment manufacturers like Maxwell Technologies (300751.SZ), Jingwei Smartcreat (300724.SZ), and Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), and key material supplier Longhua Technology (300263.SZ). The gallium arsenide route represents the current mainstay segment; it is recommended to focus on leading market share companies such as Changzhou Fusion New Material (300102.SZ) and San'an Optoelectronics (600703.SH). Furthermore, benefiting from the expansion of space computing and commercial aerospace scenarios, it is advisable to monitor the progress of relevant supporting industrial chain companies, such as Sirui New Materials (688102.SH), Orient Tantalum Industry (000962.SZ), Shuangliang Eco-Energy (600481.SH), and Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ).

Risk warnings. Technology development may fall short of expectations; raw material prices may fluctuate; industry competition may intensify.