Title

Earning Preview: WillScot Corporation Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 10.09%, and institutional views are overweight

Abstract

WillScot Corporation will release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results Post Market on February 19, 2026, and this preview evaluates the company’s latest reported metrics, its current-quarter forecasts, and recent analyst commentary to frame the likely revenue, margin, and EPS trajectories.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest forecasts, WillScot Corporation’s current quarter is expected to deliver revenue of $545.35 million, representing a 10.09% year-over-year decline, with estimated adjusted EPS of $0.33, down 31.68% year over year; EBIT is projected at $102.60 million, down 41.62% year over year. The company’s leasing and services (which accounted for 93.98% of revenue last quarter) remains the anchor of its model, while sales are a smaller, more variable stream; the most promising driver continues to be leasing and services, which generated $532.74 million last quarter and underpins cash generation and margin resilience across cycles, though segment-specific YoY growth was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the most recently reported quarter, WillScot Corporation posted revenue of $566.84 million, a gross profit margin of 49.68%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $43.33 million, a net profit margin of 7.64%, and adjusted EPS of $0.24, down 58.62% year over year, with total revenue declining 5.75% year over year. The quarter-on-quarter change in GAAP net profit was -9.61%, reflecting a softer profit conversion versus the prior quarter despite still-elevated gross margin levels. The main business delivered consistent scale: leasing and services contributed $532.74 million (93.98% of total revenue), while company-level revenue decreased 5.75% year over year; segment-specific YoY growth was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Leasing and Services: The Core Cash Engine

Leasing and services is the central pillar of WillScot Corporation’s results, representing $532.74 million last quarter and 93.98% of total revenue. For the current quarter, the forecast points to total revenue of $545.35 million, a 10.09% year-over-year decline, and adjusted EPS of $0.33, a 31.68% year-over-year decline. Within that backdrop, leasing and services is the likely stabilizer, benefiting from its recurring nature, multi-quarter contracts, and the operational levers that historically support margin durability such as pricing discipline, utilization management, and fleet mix optimization. Given the company’s reported gross margin of 49.68% last quarter and its net margin of 7.64%, the segment’s contribution is essential to preserving gross spread even as top-line faces pressure. This segment’s performance often hinges on the cadence of contract renewals and rate changes; while revenue expectations indicate a year-over-year decline in the quarter, the structure of leasing agreements typically smooths volatility relative to one-time sales, keeping the gross-profit-to-revenue ratio comparatively robust. The quarter’s EBIT estimate of $102.60 million, down 41.62% year over year, embeds both the revenue decline and a conservative margin conversion; leasing and services, thanks to its recurring base, should remain the primary source of EBIT, even if conversion is adversely impacted by mix, seasonality, or transitory cost lines.

Sales: Smaller, More Volatile, and Sensitive to Mix

Sales contributed $34.10 million last quarter and accounted for 6.02% of total revenue. This stream is typically more variable and can swing with timing of asset dispositions, unit sales, and customer capex cycles. In the current quarter, with revenue forecast to be $545.35 million (down 10.09% year over year), the sales stream is likely a secondary influence compared to leasing and services, but it can still affect quarterly EPS and EBIT variability if mix shifts toward lower-margin transactions. The magnitude of the expected EPS decline (31.68% year over year) and EBIT decline (41.62% year over year) indicates that either pricing, cost absorption, or mix effects are tightening profit conversion relative to last year’s comparable period. Against that, even modestly improved execution in sales—either through better pricing on disposals or improved mix—could provide incremental support to margins. However, given the relatively small share of total revenue, improvements here are more likely to be margin tweaks than foundational changes in the quarter’s overall trajectory.

Share Price Drivers: Revenue Cadence, Margin Trajectory, and EPS Conversion

Three factors are set to shape investor reaction this quarter: the top-line cadence, the resilience of gross margin, and the conversion of EBIT to adjusted EPS. The model anticipates a revenue figure of $545.35 million and a year-over-year decline of 10.09%, which places emphasis on whether leasing and services can hold mix and price sufficiently to sustain gross margin near the last-reported 49.68% level; the company did not provide a specific gross margin forecast for the current quarter, so the market will infer margin resilience from qualitative commentary and realized mix. The EBIT estimate of $102.60 million, down 41.62% year over year, suggests tighter profit conversion; markets are likely to assess how operating costs, fleet availability, and any non-operational items weighed on that conversion. Adjusted EPS is forecast at $0.33, down 31.68% year over year, a steeper decline than revenue; that gap will draw scrutiny to gross-to-net bridges including SG&A, interest, taxes, and share count changes. On the last-reported figures, net income attributable to the parent company was $43.33 million with a net margin of 7.64%, and quarter-on-quarter GAAP net profit change was -9.61%; quarter-to-quarter moves can be influenced by seasonality or non-cash items, and investors will look for management commentary clarifying the durability of gross profit and whether any transitory headwinds are likely to fade in subsequent periods.

EPS Bridge: From Revenue and EBIT to Adjusted Earnings

The forecast compression of EBIT to $102.60 million (down 41.62% year over year) and adjusted EPS to $0.33 (down 31.68% year over year) means the earnings bridge will be a focal point. Last quarter’s gross margin of 49.68% confirms strong unit economics in the core business, yet adjusted EPS of $0.24 (down 58.62% year over year) highlighted pressure below gross profit. Translating EBIT to EPS involves SG&A, depreciation and amortization, financing costs, and taxes—all of which can either exacerbate or mitigate headline revenue changes. If operating costs improved from last quarter’s base, or if financing costs moderated, the EPS impact could be less severe than EBIT’s decline implies. Conversely, if non-operating items or depreciation accelerated, adjusted EPS could track closer to the current EBIT estimate’s steep decline. Investors will likely probe these bridges carefully, especially in the context of contract renewals and price changes that influence cash flow per unit over time.

Revenue Mix and Gross Margin Resilience

The last quarter’s main business breakdown—$532.74 million in leasing and services versus $34.10 million in sales—demonstrates the extent to which recurring leasing underpins gross margin stability. With the current quarter’s revenue forecast at $545.35 million (-10.09% year over year), margin resilience will depend on keeping a favorable mix of longer-duration leases and higher-value services. The reported gross margin of 49.68% last quarter provides a benchmark; a similar level in the current quarter would suggest sustained pricing power and healthy utilization rates within the fleet. If mix shifts toward lower-margin sales or if cost absorption pressures rise, the gross margin could dip, amplifying the EBIT and EPS declines. The net margin last quarter stood at 7.64%, and the GAAP net-profit change was -9.61% quarter over quarter; against that backdrop, even small improvements in gross spread can have a disproportionate impact on net profit, given the leverage of fixed overheads and the flow-through characteristics of leasing revenue.

Cash Generation and Operating Leverage

Although the forecast data does not explicitly list cash-flow metrics, the centrality of leasing and services implies steady cash generation aligned with contract duration and invoicing patterns. Operating leverage becomes particularly relevant in a quarter where revenue declines year over year; preserving or enhancing gross margin provides a buffer, while any efficiency in SG&A further helps conversion to EBIT and adjusted EPS. Last quarter’s net income attributable to the parent company was $43.33 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.24; this pairing suggests room for improvement if cost lines can be streamlined and if the segment mix favors higher-margin leasing. The degree to which these levers can offset revenue pressure will influence whether the EPS outcome lands near the $0.33 forecast or diverges. The downstream effect on net margin, from last quarter’s 7.64%, hinges on how successfully the company can align pricing and mix to the revenue base, a core consideration for investors appraising the sustainability of earnings into subsequent quarters.

Scenario Considerations for the Quarter

A constructive scenario would see leasing and services maintain stable pricing and utilization, enabling gross margin to track closely to last quarter’s 49.68% benchmark and keeping net margin from deteriorating significantly despite top-line pressure. In that case, EBIT could hold up better than the -41.62% year-over-year decline in the current estimate implies, and adjusted EPS could land nearer the $0.33 forecast with lower risk to downside. A more cautious scenario would involve mix shift toward lower-margin sales or incremental cost absorption that pulls gross margin below the prior quarter’s level; that would suggest EBIT might underperform the current estimate and adjusted EPS could face additional compression. Given the last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter GAAP net-profit change of -9.61%, even small mix changes can alter the EPS trajectory for the quarter. The market’s focus will be on management’s guidance and commentary around contract pricing, fleet utilization, and operating costs that tie directly to the revenue and margin bridges inferred by the forecasts.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate the institutional perspective on WillScot Corporation during the period under review, with the consensus among covering analysts indicating an overweight stance and a mean price target of $24.60. The majority bullish view centers on the company’s ability to leverage its leasing and services scale to stabilize gross margin and preserve earnings power through cycles. Proponents point to last quarter’s 49.68% gross margin and the recurring nature of leasing revenue as foundational strengths that can mitigate the impact of the forecast top-line decline of 10.09% in the current quarter. Supporters argue that if pricing discipline and utilization rates are maintained, adjusted EPS—forecast at $0.33, down 31.68% year over year—can still meet expectations even as EBIT is projected to decline 41.62% year over year. The bullish camp also emphasizes that leasing and services, which delivered $532.74 million last quarter and comprised 93.98% of revenue, is positioned to anchor results in the current quarter, limiting the volatility that might otherwise arise in the smaller sales stream.

From a valuation lens, the majority outlook maintains confidence that the company’s steady gross spread and recurring cash flows justify constructive ratings, while acknowledging near-term EPS compression embedded in the estimates. This perspective views potential upside in margin resilience and operating leverage if cost control measures and mix management align favorably. The analysts in the majority also note that the bridge from EBIT to adjusted EPS remains the key determinant of share price reaction, and they expect WillScot Corporation to articulate drivers that support conversion despite revenue pressures. Overall, bullish commentary reflects confidence in the core leasing model’s ability to underpin earnings, which explains the overweight consensus and the clustering of price targets around the $24.60 level in the current coverage environment.