According to SMM data, China is projected to import a total of 1.19 million tonnes of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe in 2025, equivalent to 148,800 tonnes of lithium carbonate production, indicating Zimbabwe's significant influence on the global lithium carbonate supply. If Zimbabwe's export ban policy persists, the supply of lithium ore is expected to tighten considerably. Currently, Chinese companies with lithium mining assets in Zimbabwe have begun establishing lithium sulfate production capacity. It is anticipated that once this capacity is operational, it will gradually mitigate the policy's impact. The lithium carbonate industry is experiencing tight supply and continuous inventory drawdowns. Zimbabwe's export ban is expected to further tighten the industry's fundamentals, leading to forecasts of strong and volatile lithium prices. An "Overweight" rating is maintained for the sector. The main viewpoints are as follows:
Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium concentrate, which is expected to cause significant supply disruptions. According to SMM, on February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate, aiming to strengthen mineral supervision and accountability. In the future, only enterprises holding valid mining rights and approved concentrators will qualify for exports, with a ban on exports by agents and third-party traders. Applications will require a recommendation letter from provincial mining offices regarding processing capacity and compliance, along with declarations of mineral composition. Based on SMM data, Zimbabwe's impact on global lithium carbonate supply is substantial. A continued export ban would significantly tighten the lithium ore supply side.
The policy is consistent, and supply disruptions may persist. According to China's Ministry of Commerce, Zimbabwe began banning exports of unprocessed lithium ore in 2022, permitting only lithium concentrate exports. In June 2025, Zimbabwe announced plans to ban lithium concentrate exports starting January 2027, allowing only exports of higher value-added lithium sulfate. In January 2026, the Zimbabwean government began inspections for potential violations of its raw ore export ban and illegal smuggling of ore out of the country. These连贯 policies are推测 aimed at retaining the lithium mining, processing, and smelting industries domestically, aligning with common practices for resource-rich nations. The current export ban is also expected to make Zimbabwe's lithium ore exports more regulated. Currently, Chinese companies with lithium mines in Zimbabwe are establishing lithium sulfate capacity, expected to gradually absorb the policy's impact once operational.
Fundamentals remain strong, with lithium prices trending upwards with volatility. From late January to February 2026, lithium carbonate inventories under the SMM口径 declined for five consecutive weeks, with the rate of destocking accelerating gradually, indicating robust underlying fundamentals. Currently, the market is in a phase of post-Spring Festival demand recovery. With recovering demand, lithium carbonate inventories are expected to continue declining, supporting strong price performance. Looking ahead to 2026, driven by demand from energy storage and power batteries, lithium carbonate demand growth is projected to be rapid. On the supply side, disruptions at a major Jiangxi mine have not yet subsided, and overseas supply has seen further changes. The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate in 2026 is anticipated to remain tight. Recommended stocks include藏格矿业(000408.SZ),赣锋锂业(002460.SZ,01772),天齐锂业(002466.SZ,09696),永兴材料(002756.SZ), and雅化集团(002497.SZ).
Risks include potential policy reversals in Zimbabwe and a significant decline in power battery demand.