After concluding a meeting at 3:30 p.m., a glance at the market revealed a sea of red across global indices, with the sole exception of a slight blush on Russian markets. China's A-shares, in particular, lived up to their reputation of falling harder than others—plummeting over three percent, nearly four percent, while others experienced only modest declines. Calculations based on the total global stock market capitalization of $130-140 trillion and average decline rates indicate that between $700 billion to nearly $1 trillion evaporated in just one day. Reports suggest U.S. military war expenditures amount to $41.6 million per hour. Since the conflict began, total spending has not exceeded $24 billion. Even factoring in damages from strikes on Iran and Gulf nations, the total cost would barely reach $60-70 billion. Yet, while the Pentagon requested a $200 billion war budget from Congress, investors have lost several times that amount from their pockets. Iran has stated that if the U.S. wishes to cease hostilities, it must compensate for all war-related losses. But who will compensate the investors’ losses?

Strangely, stocks related to pork also suffered heavy losses today. Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. fell over 9%, reportedly due to live hog prices dropping below the 10-yuan threshold. This is puzzling—pigs do not consume petroleum, wear clothes made from petrochemicals, nor have any connection to the Middle East. How could conflict there cause pork prices to hit their lowest since 2018? Has consumption weakened to the point where people cannot afford pork? Official growth statistics do not suggest so. What, then, is the real reason?

Meanwhile, Russia has benefited enormously from the situation. Initially anxious after losing Syria and with Iran as its last Middle Eastern foothold, Russia was alarmed when Supreme Leader Khamenei was targeted early in the conflict. However, Iran has held its ground, and the U.S. now risks being bogged down, reminiscent of Russia’s own challenges in the Ukraine conflict. As the U.S. increases military presence in the Middle East, a Vietnam-like scenario seems possible. In contrast, Russia is profiting from soaring global oil prices, reportedly earning an additional $150 million daily from oil sales. With shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, demand for Russian crude from countries like India has surged, bringing billions in unexpected revenue from oil export taxes. The U.S. has also eased sanctions pressure on India regarding Russian oil purchases, redirecting tankers to the Indian Ocean route. No wonder Russia remains silent and smug while others panic over the strait’s closure. Observing global stock reactions, one can imagine President Putin smiling in his sleep.

Reflecting on over a year ago, before the current U.S. administration took office, Russia was struggling—battling setbacks in Ukraine, crippled by sanctions, and facing internal fiscal crises. But soon after the administration change, U.S. aid to Ukraine was cut, allowing Russia to recover. The subsequent provocation of war with Iran diverted international attention. Crucially, by launching an offensive war, the U.S. lost its moral high ground to criticize others. Now, the U.S. is trapped in a costly conflict, causing market turmoil, while Russia thrives due to the war and relaxed oil sanctions. Previous suspicions of collusion between the U.S. and Russia now seem less far-fetched.