CMB International Reports 2026 Lunar New Year Consumption Trends Met Expectations with Continued Category Divergence

Stock News
Feb 26

According to a research report from CMB International, tourism and travel demand during the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday demonstrated resilience and aligned with market expectations, with "long-distance travel" and "family-oriented trips" emerging as key themes. For offline consumption, average daily sales at major retail and catering enterprises nationwide during the holiday period increased by 5.7% compared to the same period in 2025, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from the growth rate seen during the previous year's Lunar New Year holiday. In the online consumption segment, the Spring Festival period represents a seasonal low for beauty and personal care brands compared to shopping events like 618 and Double 11, leading to significant performance divergence among brands. Influenced by a shift in brand marketing focus toward offline channels and a high base from the same period last year, overall gold and jewelry sales were relatively weak, with the trend extending to mass-market brands that had previously benefited significantly from penetration into lower-tier cities. Key views from CMB International are as follows:

Tourism and Travel: Growth demonstrates resilience, meeting market expectations, with "long-distance travel" and "family-oriented" as key themes. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday (February 15 to February 23, 2026), domestic tourist trips in China reached 596 million, with total tourism spending amounting to 803.483 billion yuan. On a daily average basis, the number of tourist trips and tourism spending increased by 5.7% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively. Data from Mafengwo shows that as of February 22 (the sixth day of the lunar new year), orders for long-distance trips of five days or more accounted for 59.6% of total orders during the holiday period, with the average travel duration per person reaching 6.4 days, an increase of 0.5 days year-on-year. The Fliggy platform reported that domestic travel orders during the holiday increased by 80% year-on-year, with the average booking value per person rising by approximately 10%. For international long-haul travel, data from the National Immigration Administration indicated that the average daily number of inbound and outbound travelers inspected by border authorities across the country during the holiday increased by 10.1% year-on-year. Regarding the "family-oriented" trend, Mafengwo data shows that family and parent-child customer groups accounted for 68% of its platform orders, with "three-generation travel" comprising 34%, establishing this segment as the core travel demographic during the holiday. According to Meituan data, bookings for parent-child tickets during the holiday increased by 76% year-on-year, while the number of families visiting multiple cities grew by 50% year-on-year.

Offline Consumption: Growth rate improves both sequentially and year-on-year. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the average daily sales of major retail and catering enterprises nationwide during the Spring Festival holiday increased by 5.7% compared to the same period in 2025. This growth rate accelerated by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year's Spring Festival holiday and also accelerated from the 2.7% year-on-year growth seen during the 2025 National Day holiday. The passenger flow and turnover of 78 key pedestrian streets (commercial districts) increased by 6.7% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, with the turnover growth rate accelerating compared to the National Day holiday.

Online Consumption: Brand marketing investment significantly weaker than during 618 and Double 11, leading to subdued sales performance. 1) Cosmetics and Skincare: According to data from Chanmama, the combined sales of key brands on the Douyin platform during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday ranged from 250 million to 378 million yuan, up from the range of 212 million to 348 million yuan during the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 12.0%. Calculating the average daily sales based on the midpoint of the range shows a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, essentially flat. Compared to the 618 and Double 11 shopping festivals, the Spring Festival holiday is a low season for sales momentum in the beauty and personal care category, with significant divergence in brand performance. - Maogeping: Sales increased by 114.3% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from its category expansion strategy and a low base effect on the Douyin platform. - Proya: Sales increased by 58.6% year-on-year, benefiting from the strong performance of its main brand Proya, OR, and INSBAHA. - Forest Cabin: Sales increased by 42.7% year-on-year, likely aided by proactive marketing efforts. - Botanee: Sales increased by approximately 7.7% year-on-year. - Shanghai Jahwa: Sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, supported by the steady market performance of its main brand Herborist and strong contributions from sub-brands such as Anminyou and One Page. The divergent performance among brands further validates the effectiveness of building differentiated, multi-brand portfolios to capture opportunities in segmented markets.

2) Gold and Jewelry: Overall sales performance was relatively weak, influenced by a shift in brand marketing focus toward offline channels and a high base from the same period last year. According to monitoring from the Chanmama platform, the total sales range for key brands decreased from 285-390 million yuan during the 2025 Spring Festival holiday to 260-309 million yuan in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. On a daily average basis, the decrease was 25.1%, primarily due to the high sales base established in the same period of 2025 against a backdrop of strong gold price appreciation expectations and high terminal consumption sentiment. Entering 2026, factors such as geopolitics led to significant volatility in gold prices at high levels, dampening terminal consumption willingness. In particular, the correction in gold prices from their highs at the end of January triggered temporary market panic, further weakening consumer purchasing power for high-value luxury items like gold. Significant divergence is evident at the brand level: Mass-market brands that significantly benefited from the trend spreading to lower-tier cities during the 2025 Spring Festival gold consumption boom, such as CHJ Jewellery, ZLF, and China Gold Group, experienced notable declines in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -72.0%, -53.3%, and -12.5%, respectively. In contrast, brands like Chow Sang Sang, Luk Fook Jewellery, Chow Tai Fook, and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery achieved relatively good growth on a more normalized base, with year-on-year growth rates of 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, and 14.3%, respectively.

Investment Advice: Maintain a positive outlook on service-oriented consumption and themes related to external image enhancement and self-indulgence within emotional consumption. For the travel sector, companies like Trip.com Group and TONGCHENGTRAVEL are suggested for attention. Within the beauty and personal care sector, attention is recommended on ETERNAL BEAUTY, which possesses a superior multi-brand portfolio layout compared to peers.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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