Beyond SpaceX: Exploring Diverse Investment Opportunities in the Space Economy

Deep News
Yesterday

The potential public listing of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) is set to open a major gateway for investors into the space economy, yet the universe of noteworthy public opportunities in this cosmic race extends far beyond a single company.

Publicly traded Rocket Lab, listed on the Nasdaq, reported a 38% year-over-year revenue increase last year to over $600 million. As of the end of the first quarter this year, its backlog of booked revenue stood at $2.2 billion, supported by a launch manifest of over 70 missions. The company secured a $190 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense in March and is involved in developing the "Golden Dome" space-based missile defense system. As space militarization deepens and concepts like space-based AI data centers gain traction, this backlog is poised for further expansion.

From a valuation perspective, Rocket Lab's stock has surged over 50% this year, and its price-to-sales ratio is roughly comparable to SpaceX's targeted valuation, indicating it is not cheap. However, achieving high growth from a base of over $600 million in annual revenue is far more feasible than for SpaceX to sustain a similar pace from its much larger scale. For investors keen on the space economy but hesitant to place all bets on SpaceX, this offers a relatively more flexible entry point.

Additional Players in the Satellite Arena

Beyond Rocket Lab, satellite communications operators like AST Spacemobile, Viasat, and Iridium have their own growth narratives. However, facing competition from both SpaceX and Amazon, the spectrum assets held by smaller operators may constitute their ultimate value—a logic underscored by Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar in April, which was motivated by spectrum considerations.

The Neutron Rocket: Narrowing the Cost Gap

Delivering payloads to Earth orbit represents a significant technological barrier, with only a handful of companies globally possessing this capability. From Virgin Orbit to Astra, numerous public companies have faltered in their attempts. Blue Origin, backed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, has also faced notable setbacks in this domain.

Rocket Lab, founded in New Zealand and now headquartered in California, has successfully completed 88 launches of its small-lift Electron rocket, primarily to low Earth orbit, with only four failures, the most recent in 2023. This success rate is unique among its public peers and forms the core foundation for winning the trust of defense clients. The company is led by self-taught engineer Peter Beck.

Rocket Lab is not content to remain solely in the small payload market. The company plans the inaugural launch of its medium-lift Neutron rocket this year, with a maximum payload capacity of 13 metric tons and a projected launch cost of approximately $4,000 per kilogram, broadly in line with some versions of SpaceX's Falcon 9. In comparison, SpaceX's Falcon Heavy can deliver nearly 64 metric tons to low Earth orbit at a cost of about $1,500 per kilogram. While Neutron's entry is unlikely to challenge SpaceX's scale advantage, it will enable Rocket Lab to compete for a broader range of mission types.

Chief Financial Officer Adam Spice noted that if the industrialization of space-based AI accelerates, demand for greater launch capacity will rise, at which point the company could consider developing a larger rocket to move closer to SpaceX's capabilities.

Dual Growth Engines: Defense and AI

Rocket Lab's core appeal to defense clients lies in its flexibility. Small rockets offer high agility, meeting the military's need for rapid, on-demand deployment of reconnaissance satellites into orbit. Military customers are typically reluctant to share SpaceX's launch resources with other commercial users.

In March, the company won a $190 million Pentagon contract to test hypersonic flight conditions using its Electron rocket. Concurrently, it is collaborating with defense contractor RTX on the U.S. "Golden Dome" project. Peter Beck stated on last month's quarterly earnings call that the launch backlog now exceeds 70 missions.

In the data center arena, Rocket Lab is also making moves. Spice indicated the company intends to pursue a deeply vertical integration strategy. "We would rather build data centers in orbit ourselves and lease capacity to customers, rather than just building facilities for clients," he said.

Rocket Lab's stock is not inexpensive. Its year-to-date gain of over 50% and valuation metrics comparable to SpaceX's target already reflect a significant degree of optimism.

The crucial difference lies in the starting point. Growing from a smaller revenue base requires a far smaller absolute increment for Rocket Lab than it would for SpaceX to accomplish a similar task from its massive scale. In other words, Rocket Lab has a clearer path to "growing into" its current high valuation, whereas SpaceX must sustain a faster pace to justify market expectations.

Other Space Stocks: Spectrum as a M&A Wildcard

The investment thesis for other public space companies is more varied. The market outlook for lunar exploration specialist Intuitive Machines remains uncertain. Satellite operators like AST Spacemobile, Viasat, and Iridium have clearer growth drivers, such as space-based mobile phone connectivity and (in Iridium's case) IoT satellite services, but they operate in increasingly competitive sectors.

Industry analysis estimates satellite operators collectively generated $24 billion in revenue last year, a figure expected to rise in the coming years, though it may not reach the $1.6 trillion total addressable market cited by SpaceX in recent IPO documentation. Currently, SpaceX's Starlink commands roughly half the market. Amazon is also accelerating its efforts through subsidiary Amazon Leo, positioning itself as another well-funded competitor.

However, smaller operators hold a potential trump card: spectrum assets—the proprietary rights to transmit data and voice over specific frequency bands. Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar in April explicitly cited the value of its satellite network and spectrum. This precedent suggests that even if smaller operators struggle to build robust standalone businesses, the value of their spectrum could provide investors with an exit path via acquisition premiums.

While SpaceX may be the primary symbol of the space economy for many investors, the investment opportunities in this cosmic arena are far more extensive.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10