Gold's latest market trend analysis: On February 13, analysis of gold's fundamental drivers: During the Asian session on Friday, spot gold (XAU/USD) continued its decline from the previous day, with prices falling to near $4910 before rebounding. This round of decline is not an isolated event but rather a concentrated sell-off formed against the backdrop of macroeconomic data reinforcing expectations of high interest rates and tightening market liquidity. Volatility in artificial intelligence-related assets has triggered a decline in market risk appetite, leading to correlated pullbacks across multiple asset classes. Simultaneously, some leveraged funds are facing margin call pressures, with forced liquidation behaviors further exacerbating the decline in gold prices. The essence of this sharp drop in gold prices is the result of dual drivers: "liquidity + interest rate expectations." Employment data merely served as a trigger, while margin pressures and quantitative factors amplified the market reaction. In the short term, gold's movement will be entirely constrained by inflation data and expectations for the interest rate path. If inflation unexpectedly weakens, gold prices may have room for a technical rebound; but if inflation proves stubborn, the high-level adjustment cycle could be prolonged. In the current high-volatility environment, controlling risk exposure is more important than predicting direction.

Gold technical analysis: From a technical perspective, following the recent decline from highs, short-term momentum in gold prices has clearly reversed, indicating that gold is entering a new phase of downward adjustment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rapidly fallen from a previous neutral range to 41.57, showing that short-term bearish forces are dominant and bearish sentiment is heating up. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reading has risen to 29.25, and the +DI (7.05) is significantly lower than the -MDI (42.33), indicating that the strength of the current downward trend is gradually increasing. The Average True Range (ATR) remains at 55.81, meaning price volatility is still at a high level and market uncertainty has amplified. On the 4-hour chart, spot gold is testing the support of the 50-period moving average (4958.24). The next key support level is seen near $4850, followed by the 200-period moving average (4956.476). A break below this level could open up further downside. On the upside, reclaiming the $5000 mark is necessary to effectively alleviate the current bearish sentiment. However, the overall uptrend for gold has been seriously threatened, and the short-term bias remains bearish. Comprehensive analysis suggests that for today's short-term trading in gold, the strategy should primarily focus on selling on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the 5020-5070 range, while key short-term support below is focused around the 4920-4870 range.

Crude oil's latest market trend analysis: Analysis of crude oil's fundamental drivers: During the Asian session on Friday, US crude oil saw a slight rebound, trading near $63 per barrel, returning to the lower end of its recent range. Fundamentally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a monthly report stating that as supply expansion and demand slowdown occur simultaneously, the global crude oil market's supply-demand structure has significantly deteriorated. Global crude oil inventories are projected to increase by 477 million barrels in 2025, marking the fastest accumulation rate since 2020. OECD country inventories are above the five-year average for the first time in four years, signaling the market's re-entry into a surplus cycle. On the demand side, the IEA has revised down its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 769,000 barrels per day, reflecting economic uncertainty and the suppressive effect of high prices on consumption. Demand in 2026 is expected to grow by 849,000 barrels per day, with total demand reaching 104.87 million barrels per day, but this is still insufficient to absorb the supply expansion.

Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices ended their consecutive run of positive closes, with the K-line forming a large bearish candlestick. The moving average system still supports prices in a bullish alignment, and the medium-term objective trend direction remains upward. The MACD indicator is above the zero line, with bullish momentum dominant, suggesting the medium-term trend for crude oil maintains an upward rhythm. On a short-term (1H) basis, the price action has formed a minor consolidation pattern near the upper boundary of its range, with limited downward momentum. The short-term objective trend direction is consolidative. Attention should be paid to the resistance effect at the upper boundary of the range. It is anticipated that intraday oil price movement is more likely to break upwards. Comprehensive analysis suggests that for today's trading in crude oil, the strategy should primarily focus on buying on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the 64.0-65.0 range, while key short-term support below is focused around the 61.5-60.5 range.