A major counteroffensive is underway! Overnight in the US stock market, the three major indices rallied strongly across the board, with the Dow Jones surging over 1% and the S&P 500 index approaching a new historical high. Memory chip stocks led the charge with a full-scale breakout; SanDisk's stock price skyrocketed nearly 17% intraday, while Western Digital (WDC) surged over 10%. The catalyst was a report from Goldman Sachs aggressively raising its price increase forecast for DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) in the first quarter of 2026, now projecting a staggering sequential price jump of 90% to 95%, far exceeding previous market expectations and the bank's own prior estimates.

In early Asian trading, Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened sharply higher, with the Nikkei 225 Index surging over 2% and South Korea's KOSPI Index jumping over 3%. Concurrently, the precious metals market also launched a full-scale rally. As of 08:00 Beijing time, spot gold soared 2.7% to $4,784.89 per ounce, while spot silver surged 5.04% to $83.12 per ounce.

Chip stocks experienced a massive breakout. On February 2nd, US Eastern Time, the US stock market staged a comprehensive rebound. The three major indices opened lower but climbed higher throughout the session, closing with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq up 0.56%. Notably, the S&P 500 once again neared its record closing high.

Large-cap tech stocks displayed a mixed performance. Apple surged over 4%, while Google and Amazon each gained over 1%. In contrast, Nvidia and Tesla fell over 2%, and Microsoft and Meta declined over 1%.

US chip stocks collectively exploded higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.7%, led by the memory chip sector. SanDisk skyrocketed over 15%, Western Digital (WDC) jumped nearly 8%, Seagate Technology climbed over 6%, and Micron Technology (MU) advanced over 5%. Other chip giants also mostly strengthened, with Intel (INTC) gaining nearly 5%, AMD and Texas Instruments rising over 4%, and TSMC's ADR increasing over 3%.

Some analysts pointed out that "hot money" exiting precious metals and cryptocurrencies is seeking a new narrative, and memory chips, backed by strong fundamentals, could attract these inflows.

In a newly released report, Goldman Sachs noted that despite volatility in the spot market, DRAM contract prices have not fallen but instead face expectations for even more aggressive increases.

The analyst team led by Giuni Lee at Goldman Sachs indicated that DRAM pricing forecasts for major application segments in Q1 2026 have been significantly revised upwards. Specifically, overall pricing for conventional DRAM is now expected to achieve a further sequential increase of 90% to 95% in Q1 2026, building on an anticipated 45%-50% sequential rise in Q4 2025. This outlook far surpasses previous market and the bank's own expectations.

Within specific segments, the momentum for price hikes in PC DRAM and server DRAM is particularly strong. TrendForce has raised its Q1 2026 PC DRAM contract price forecast to a sequential increase of 105% to 110%, a figure substantially higher than Goldman Sachs's previous estimate of 80% to 90%, suggesting further potential upside in the market. TrendForce maintained its forecast for a 20% to 25% sequential growth in the second quarter.

Separately, the rare earth sector initially surged on stimulus from reports that the Trump administration plans to establish a "$10 billion critical minerals reserve," but intraday performance diverged. By the close, U.S. Antimony Corp. was up over 7%, while U.S. Rare Earths and Critical Metals both closed lower after rising over 10% during the session.

Better-than-expected data. Simultaneously, positive signals emerged from US macroeconomic data.

Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on February 2nd, US Eastern Time, showed that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January unexpectedly surged to 52.6 from 47.9 the previous month. This figure significantly exceeded expectations of 48.5, marking the index's first entry into expansion territory in nearly a year and representing the fastest growth rate since 2022, primarily driven by robust growth in new orders and production.

An index reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, and the latest figure surpassed all economist forecasts in media surveys.

The New Orders Index jumped to 57.1 from a previous reading of 47.7, a near 10-point surge. The Production Index also strengthened significantly, with both indicators showing their fastest growth rates in nearly four years.

The Employment Index came in at 48.1, higher than the expected 46 and the prior 44.9, reaching a one-year high. This suggests that manufacturing employment is still declining, but the pace of contraction has slowed.

Analysts noted that a demand-driven rebound in factory activity is undoubtedly positive news after nearly a year of contraction. If this growth proves sustainable, it could bolster confidence that the US manufacturing sector is emerging from its three-year slump.

Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated in a release that while the data provides a positive signal for the start of the year, caution is warranted.

The US manufacturing sector has been in a subdued state for the past three years, with the PMI exceeding 50 on very few occasions over the last three-plus years.

Therefore, some commentary advises maintaining caution for two reasons: firstly, January is typically a month for restocking after the holidays; secondly, some purchasing activity appears to be preemptive, aimed at getting ahead of potential price increases stemming from persistent tariff issues.

It is noteworthy that a partial US government shutdown will delay the release of the January employment report, creating a gap in key data for the market.

On February 2nd local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the January employment report, originally scheduled for release on February 6th, will not be published on time due to the partial federal government shutdown.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also postponed the JOLTS report for December, which was due this Tuesday. This marks another instance of critical economic data being delayed due to a funding lapse, following the record 43-day government shutdown last fall. Last year, the September non-farm payrolls report was delayed until November 20th, while the October and November reports were combined and released on December 16th.