Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that in Q3 2025, downstream traditional off-season conditions led to chemical product price declines from high levels, while oil and coal prices rose quarter-over-quarter. However, strong demand in segments such as agrochemicals supported performance. During the Q3 traditional off-season, downstream operations decreased and the market was generally in a destocking phase. Combined with energy price rebounds from the bottom, some cyclical product price spreads fell from high levels, putting quarter-over-quarter pressure on performance.

According to Wind statistics, Q3 2025 Brent crude spot price averaged $69.29/barrel, down 14% year-over-year and up 2% quarter-over-quarter. NYMEX natural gas futures averaged $3.08/million BTU, up 38% year-over-year but down 12% quarter-over-quarter. Qinhuangdao port 5,500 kcal thermal coal averaged 673 yuan/ton, down 21% year-over-year but up 5% quarter-over-quarter. Oil and coal prices were significantly weaker year-over-year but still rebounded quarter-over-quarter, increasing cost pressures for chemical products.

Based on earnings forecasts for major chemical companies tracked for Q3 2025, the weighted average EPS is expected to be 0.25 yuan, up 24.93% year-over-year but down 0.08% quarter-over-quarter, showing seasonal weakness quarter-over-quarter while significantly improving year-over-year.

Sub-sectors expected to show significant year-over-year net profit growth in Q3 2025 include pesticides, phosphorus chemicals, potash fertilizers, fluorochemicals, civil explosives, semiconductor materials, display materials, catalyst materials, and modified plastics. Sub-sectors with substantial quarter-over-quarter net profit improvements include phosphorus chemicals, potash fertilizers, tires, semiconductor materials, display materials, and modified plastics.

Among these, the agrochemical sector, including pesticides, phosphorus chemicals, and potash fertilizers, has strong demand support. Combined with the release of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer export quotas, performance has been favorable.

**Blue-chip Targets:** Q3 MDI price spreads fluctuated while TDI price spreads recovered from the bottom. Wanhua Chemical is expected to achieve 3.0 billion yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +3%, QoQ -1%, referring to net profit attributable to parent company).

Coal prices rose quarter-over-quarter, pressuring coal chemical company profits. Hualu Hengsheng is expected to reach 800 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY -3%, QoQ -7%); Luxi Chemical 280 million yuan (YoY -31%, QoQ -20%); Baofeng Energy's Inner Mongolia project began delivering results, expected at 3.2 billion yuan (YoY +160%, QoQ -2%).

Spandex price spreads narrowed but adipic acid profitability improved, with leading companies showing strong scale advantages. Huafeng Chemical is expected to achieve 480 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY -3%, QoQ flat).

Phosphate rock maintained high prosperity levels, and phosphate fertilizer export liberalization showed significant premiums. Yuntianhua is expected to reach 1.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +20%, QoQ +29%); Xingfa Group 600 million yuan (YoY +18%, QoQ +44%); Batian 285 million yuan (YoY +428%, QoQ flat); Yuntu Holdings 180 million yuan (YoY -16%, QoQ -30%); Xinyang Feng 400 million yuan (YoY +7%, QoQ -8%); Stanley 190 million yuan (YoY +23%, QoQ -40%).

**Fluorochemical Targets:** Strong supply-side support and continued refrigerant prosperity improvement, though Q3 off-season shipments may decrease. Juhua is expected to achieve 1.25 billion yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +196%, QoQ +1%); Sanmei 595 million yuan (YoY +236%, QoQ flat); Yonghe 195 million yuan (YoY +474%, QoQ +12%). Q3 fluorite prices bottomed out and warmed up, with associated mine project profits gradually emerging. Jinshi Resources is expected to reach 100 million yuan (YoY +20%, QoQ +69%).

**Tire Targets:** Gradual recovery after tariff impacts, combined with Q3 peak season, overall sales volume improved quarter-over-quarter. Sailun Tire is expected to achieve 1.05 billion yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY -4%, QoQ +33%); Sentury Tire 350 million yuan (YoY -46%, QoQ +13%); Linglong Tire 300 million yuan (YoY -62%, QoQ -42%); Guizhou Tire 190 million yuan (YoY +42%, QoQ +4%); General 20 million yuan (YoY -78%, QoQ turnaround); Triangle Tire 250 million yuan (YoY -8%, QoQ +9%); Quecheng 128 million yuan (YoY +9%, QoQ -7%); Hailide 110 million yuan (YoY +3%, QoQ -29%); Yanggu Huatai 65 million yuan (YoY +41%, QoQ flat).

**Cyclical Products:** Supply-demand dynamics improved, potash fertilizer and pesticide prosperity increased.

Soda ash: Boyuan Chemical expected at 350 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY -41%, QoQ -13%); Sanyou Chemical 120 million yuan (YoY +79%, QoQ +30%); Zhongyan Chemical 20 million yuan (YoY -85%, QoQ -43%).

Potash fertilizer: Salt Lake expected at 2.0 billion yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +115%, QoQ +46%); Asia-Potash International 550 million yuan (YoY +122%, QoQ +17%); Oriental Iron Tower 330 million yuan (YoY +73%, QoQ +15%).

Pesticides: Yangnong Chemical expected at 320 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +22%, QoQ -14%); Rotam 360 million yuan (YoY +125%, QoQ +20%); Xianda 80 million yuan (YoY +7900%, QoQ -30%).

Civil explosives: Yipuli expected at 200 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +16%, QoQ -18%); Guangdong Hongda 300 million yuan (YoY +27%, QoQ -27%); Jiangnan Chemical 340 million yuan (YoY +2%, QoQ +21%); Xuefeng Technology 120 million yuan (YoY -43%, QoQ -28%).

**New Materials:** Domestic autonomous and controllable processes accelerated, with domestic substitute material companies continuing to scale up.

Domestic semiconductor industry localization advanced steadily with continued downstream capital expenditure. Yacoo Science expected at 275 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +20%, QoQ +5%).

New energy materials: Xinzhoubang expected at 240 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY -16%, QoQ -6%); Tayho Advanced Materials 13 million yuan (YoY -62%, QoQ -13%); Xinhua 50 million yuan (YoY +52%, QoQ -35%).

Biomaterials: Huaheng Biotech expected at 40 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +100%, QoQ -38%); Meihua Bio 550 million yuan (YoY +6%, QoQ -27%); Blue Tech 250 million yuan (YoY +30%, QoQ flat); SICC 170 million yuan (YoY +12%, QoQ -13%).

Lubricants and plastic additives: Ruifeng New Materials expected at 190 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +5%, QoQ +9%); Lianlong 145 million yuan (YoY +54%, QoQ +9%); Chenghe Technology 80 million yuan (YoY +14%, QoQ +5%).

Food and feed additives: Jinhe Industry expected at 60 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY -63%, QoQ -35%); Bailong Chuangyuan 95 million yuan (YoY +51%, QoQ +8%); NHU 1.5 billion yuan (YoY -16%, QoQ -13%).

Modified plastics: Kingfa Technology expected at 380 million yuan in Q3 2025 (YoY +25%, QoQ +12%); Guoen 270 million yuan (YoY +47%, QoQ +15%).

**Core Risk Assumptions:** 1) Industry new project progress falls short of expectations 2) Export restrictions lead to significant price declines in some chemical products