Haitong International released a research report indicating that during the 2026 Spring Festival period, department store foot traffic in Southern China declined, with consumer spending showing clear divergence. The trendy toys sector remained highly active, with POP MART (09992) projected to achieve over 25% growth for the full year. MAO GEPING (01318) maintained high double-digit growth driven by its core product lines. Luggage brand SAMSONITE (01910) benefited from travel demand, with sales rebounding approximately 15% year-on-year in January-February. Performance in the dining and apparel sectors was subdued, while gold and jewelry sales were supported by rising gold prices.
Key observations from Haitong International are as follows:
On February 23, 2026, Haitong International hosted an expert conference featuring a Southern China department store specialist who shared insights on Spring Festival consumption trends and the performance of key brands. According to recent feedback from a Southern China department store channel surveyed by the firm, overall retail performance during the 2026 Spring Festival period was tepid, with declining foot traffic and lower average spending per customer being the main drag factors. Based on the expert’s monitoring of multiple core projects, foot traffic in shopping malls decreased year-on-year on five out of the first six days of the Spring Festival holiday, with only one day showing growth. Overall performance fell below internal company expectations. Although vehicle traffic data generally increased due to relatively lower parking fees in some commercial areas, some driving customers may have only visited surrounding areas without converting into actual in-store consumption. The expert noted that an increase in Southern Chinese consumers traveling during the holiday was a key factor contributing to the year-on-year decline in mall foot traffic.
The trendy toys sector continued to exhibit strong momentum, with leading brands maintaining robust growth through effective IP operations and high member loyalty. According to expert data, POP MART demonstrated strong overall growth, with a roughly 40% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025 driven by the popularity of its Labubu IP. Growth momentum remained stable. Given its strong IP operational capabilities—with expectations for another hit IP in 2026—and a stable fan base, the expert projected that POP MART would achieve over 25% growth for the full year. TOPTOY also recorded considerable growth in 2025, exceeding 20%.
The cosmetics category saw a slight overall increase, but performance diverged between domestic and international brands. International brands such as Dior and MAC grew by approximately 10 percentage points, showing relatively steady performance. Among domestic brands, only MAO GEPING maintained high double-digit growth, while others performed modestly. MAO GEPING sustained stable growth thanks to consistent product quality and rapid member acquisition, recording an 18 percentage point year-on-year increase in January. Its core product line, the Caviar series, accounted for a significant portion of sales, while the fragrance category remained low at 1–2%. The expert expected MAO GEPING to achieve its full-year growth target of 20%.
During the Spring Festival, the dining sector displayed a K-shaped divergence. While premium dining establishments generally faced pressure on average spending per customer, fast-food and casual dining outlets performed relatively well. According to expert data, despite acceptable queue times and table turnover rates for premium cuisines such as Cantonese, Sichuan, and Hunan, average spending per customer fell by about 5–15 percentage points year-on-year, leading to flat or minimal sales growth. In contrast, fast-food chains and tea restaurants saw relatively better sales, recording slight increases. This reflects consumers’ growing emphasis on value-for-money when dining out.
In the entertainment segment, cinema-based entertainment underperformed, with box office revenue declining compared to the previous Spring Festival. This was mainly attributed to lower-quality film releases and weaker star appeal, which dampened audience enthusiasm.
Apparel sales remained largely flat overall, with same-store growth for sportswear brands and local designer labels generally slowing. Growth in the clothing category mainly came from pre-holiday consumption, characterized by higher average spending and increased purchase frequency. FILA Sport and FILA Fusion maintained single-digit same-store growth, with steady performance early in the year. Premium Chinese-style brand Icicle, with its higher average spending, showed relatively stable same-store growth. Brands like JNBY slightly outperformed sportswear labels, with growth concentrated during seasonal transitions.
Luggage brands exhibited channel-based divergence: full-price stores faced pressure, while outlet channels grew. SAMSONITE’s sales declined year-on-year in 2025 but rebounded by about 15% in January-February 2026, driven by travel demand during the extended Spring Festival holiday. Business travel luggage remained a key sales driver. SAMSONITE’s outlet channel, benefiting from significant discounts, saw strong demand and rapid growth. However, sales of its American Tourister brand remained weak.
Gold and jewelry brands experienced lower foot traffic during the Spring Festival but achieved high single-digit sales growth due to rising gold prices. Brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang slightly outperformed Luk Fook Holdings. Growth was primarily driven by higher gold prices and increased sales of investment gold bars. High gold prices, however, dampened demand for non-essential gold jewelry. Some domestic brands attracted consumers focused on fixed pricing rather than weight, achieving growth exceeding 10 percentage points.
Risk factors include discrepancies between third-party and official data, changes in the external environment, and intensified market competition.