Title

Earning Preview: Millrose Properties, Inc. revenue is expected to increase by 5.05%, and institutional views are constructive

Abstract

Millrose Properties, Inc. will release its quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with current quarter estimates pointing to revenue of $188.31 million and adjusted EPS of $0.74, as investors focus on the durability of high margins and the options premium revenue mix following last quarter’s outturn.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s current-quarter forecast inputs and the prior quarter’s baseline, Millrose Properties, Inc. is projected to deliver revenue of $188.31 million, EBIT of $162.03 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.74 in the upcoming print; this implies a sequential revenue increase of 5.05% from the prior quarter’s $179.26 million, though year-over-year figures are not provided in the available dataset. Forecast margin breakdowns are not disclosed; investors will likely anchor on last quarter’s gross profit margin of 85.55% and net profit margin of 58.61% as reference points when triangulating the path for earnings delivery in the absence of explicit guidance on profitability percentages. The main business remains options-related revenue, which dominated last quarter’s mix; the near-term outlook revolves around whether option premium capture can maintain throughput strong enough to support the revenue estimate while holding most of the margin gains seen in the recent quarter. The most promising segment for incremental growth appears to be development loans, which contributed $8.93 million last quarter and could provide additional diversification in the revenue stack, though year-over-year growth for this segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Millrose Properties, Inc. reported last quarter revenue of $179.26 million, a gross profit margin of 85.55%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $105.00 million, a net profit margin of 58.61%, and adjusted EPS of $0.63; year-over-year comparisons were not disclosed in the available fields. A key financial highlight was the quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit attributable to the parent by 6.83%, indicating a modest normalization versus the prior period’s peak while remaining supported by a strong margin structure. From a business mix perspective, options premiums contributed $170.33 million or 95.02% of revenue, with development loans contributing $8.93 million or 4.98%, underscoring the concentration and the importance of protecting throughput in the core options book.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core revenue engine: Options premiums

Options premiums remain the primary driver of company-level revenue and earnings power, evidenced by their $170.33 million contribution last quarter, or 95.02% of the total. The company’s high gross margin baseline of 85.55% and net margin of 58.61% tie directly to how efficiently options premium revenue converts to profits; thus, any sequential shift in premium capture, contract mix, or hedging costs will shape the translation of top-line to bottom line. With a current-quarter revenue estimate of $188.31 million and EBIT projected at $162.03 million, the options book likely needs to maintain robust premium flow and low unit cost to meet the EPS estimate of $0.74 without relying on one-off effects. The sequential revenue uplift implied by the estimate (+5.05% quarter-on-quarter) is consistent with a scenario in which options premium throughput remains healthy and pricing or volume trends do not materially deteriorate versus the recent quarter. A key analytical focus is whether the company can defend the prior quarter’s margin profile while scaling revenue, since scaling often entails incremental operating costs that must be absorbed. If last quarter’s margins served as a peak, the company can still meet EPS as long as operating leverage and expense discipline offset any slight compression; if margins hold flat, the EPS path becomes cleaner and less dependent on cost offsets. Another angle to monitor is mix effects within options premiums. While the dataset does not disclose sub-lines within the options category, differences in tenor, strike proximity, and realized volatility profile can drive spread quality and P&L volatility. The high net margin reported last quarter suggests that spread capture and cost calibration were favorable; replicating that setup improves the probability of converting the revenue estimate into the guided EPS range. Given that EBIT is projected at $162.03 million against $188.31 million in revenue, the EBIT-to-revenue ratio implied by the estimate sits near last quarter’s profitability posture, positioning options premiums as the decisive swing factor for earnings delivery.

Emerging growth lever: Development loans

Development loans contributed $8.93 million last quarter, representing 4.98% of revenue. While small relative to options premiums, this book can strengthen overall revenue durability by adding a differentiated stream whose performance is not perfectly correlated with option premium dynamics. Incremental growth here could support both top-line expansion and stability of earnings, especially in quarters when options-related throughput fluctuates due to mix or timing effects. Because the dataset includes no year-over-year growth rates for this segment, a practical way to assess its contribution this quarter is to examine how any sequential changes affect total revenue relative to the $188.31 million estimate. Even a modest scaling from the $8.93 million baseline can raise the likelihood of achieving the revenue target if options premium revenue tracks close to flat sequentially. For EPS, the impact depends on the net interest margin characteristics and the credit performance within the loan portfolio; maintaining conservative underwriting and disciplined pricing would help ensure that added revenue does not introduce disproportionate credit costs that would weigh on net margin. Strategically, this segment’s importance is not merely in its absolute size but in its potential to moderate earnings variability by diversifying the drivers of revenue. Management commentary on origination volumes, yields, and repayment performance will be instrumental for investors to gauge how quickly this segment can scale without pressuring blended margins. Even without explicit forecasts for gross or net margin, maintaining a balanced growth approach—where development loans expand while risk-adjusted returns remain aligned with corporate thresholds—would support the EBIT and EPS numbers implied by the current-quarter estimates.

Stock-price swing factors this quarter

Delivery versus the $188.31 million revenue estimate and the $0.74 adjusted EPS estimate is the central swing factor, especially given the high margin base from the prior quarter. Investors will be attuned to any commentary that narrows the range of expected cost outcomes, clarifies the sustainability of last quarter’s 85.55% gross margin and 58.61% net margin, and outlines the path to repeat or improve upon these levels as the revenue base scales. A repeat of last quarter’s margin structure, even with modest top-line expansion, would solidify the case for meeting or exceeding the EPS estimate, while any notable margin slippage would likely require revenue outperformance to preserve earnings targets. Segment mix remains a key determinant. A stronger tilt toward options premiums—if it is accompanied by stable spread capture and expense control—should be earnings-accretive as long as last quarter’s conversion efficiency persists. Conversely, if development loans take a larger share of the mix, investors will parse the net contribution carefully, looking to ensure that incremental interest income is not offset by higher credit provisions or funding costs. Given last quarter’s net profit decline of 6.83% quarter-on-quarter, the market will also watch for signs that this was a one-off normalization rather than the start of a trend; evidence of stabilizing or improving sequential net profit would be supportive for valuation. Execution around operating expenses and capital allocation is another area of focus. The last quarter’s strong net margin leaves some room for absorbing incremental growth investments without undermining EPS, provided these investments translate into sustained revenue capacity. Any disclosure of buybacks, dividends, or balance-sheet optimization could influence investor perception of the earnings quality and durability of cash generation. Clarity on these items can reduce uncertainty, which is typically supportive for share performance around the print.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish majority view: Among the public institutional signals and previews identified within the specified window from August 19, 2025 to February 19, 2026, the available evidence skews constructive, with no explicit bearish previews located; as such, bullish-to-bearish stands at 1:0. On February 13, 2026, Brave Warrior Advisors disclosed a 5.58% beneficial ownership in Millrose Properties, Inc. via a Schedule 13G filing, indicating a material, long-only institutional stake aligned with a positive stance toward the company’s fundamentals. While a 13G filing is not in itself a forward estimate on quarterly results, a stake of this magnitude typically reflects an institutional assessment that earnings power and capital discipline support the current valuation and a multi-quarter thesis. This constructive positioning dovetails with the current-quarter financial framework: a revenue estimate of $188.31 million, EBIT of $162.03 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.74. From a fundamental perspective, the prior quarter’s metrics—an 85.55% gross margin and a 58.61% net margin on $179.26 million of revenue—demonstrate a level of unit economics that, if sustained, can credibly underpin the guided EPS without necessitating unusually aggressive top-line growth. Institutional investors with a multi-quarter horizon are typically sensitive to margin durability and cash conversion; the high net margin and sizeable net profit of $105.00 million last quarter suggest the business retains a meaningful buffer against moderate fluctuations in revenue mix or costs. A constructive majority view also reflects the incremental improvements implied by the sequential revenue bridge. The 5.05% quarter-on-quarter increase embedded in the revenue estimate is consistent with a scenario where core options premium throughput is maintained and ancillary revenue lines, such as development loans, contribute marginally more than last quarter’s $8.93 million. If results confirm that margins remain close to the prior-quarter baselines while revenue steps up to the estimate, the EPS print is likely to align with or slightly exceed expectations, which would support the case for institutional holders to maintain or add to positions. In this framing, the absence of contrary, bearish institutional commentary in the specified window further concentrates attention on the execution risks and delivery against the quantitative targets as the key determinants of near-term share reaction.