Pop Mart's ability to create hit products appears to be under scrutiny. Recently, the company launched two new IPs, "After-School Merodi" and "KeyA," both of which have encountered significant market and public resistance. The first failed to sell out immediately upon release, a departure from past successes, and its resale value has fallen below the retail price. The second, not yet officially launched, is already mired in controversy over its originality and aesthetic appeal.
As a leading collectible toy company driven by IP growth, Pop Mart faces a stark reality: hit products are no longer guaranteed. Concurrently, investor sentiment has wavered. After reaching a peak of HK$339.8 on August 26, 2025, the company's stock price has trended downward, closing at HK$204.8 on March 11, 2026—a decline of approximately 39.7% from its high. Based on roughly 1.341 billion outstanding shares, this corresponds to a loss of about HK$180 billion in market capitalization.
From creating nationally popular IPs like MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, and LABUBU to now launching new IPs that receive a lukewarm response, Pop Mart stands at a critical inflection point. As market enthusiasm wanes, the company must demonstrate its long-term value beyond relying solely on new IP launches.
The new IP "After-School Merodi," intended to broaden Pop Mart's IP portfolio, maintained the brand's signature cute and comforting style with a standard price point of 69 yuan. Despite pre-launch marketing, the market response was unexpectedly tepid. Online sales did not sell out quickly, and physical store launches on February 27 saw minimal queues, a stark contrast to previous frenzied buying scenes. As of March 12, cumulative sales on the official Douyin store were just over 3,800 units, far from the instant sell-out success of series like LABUBU.
This lack of enthusiasm extended to the secondary market. On platforms like Qindao, some standard models of "After-School Merodi" traded below the retail price, with the lowest around 40 yuan. While the hidden variant "I'm Super Fierce" commanded a premium, it was significantly lower than premiums for past top-tier hidden figures.
Meanwhile, "KeyA," scheduled for release on March 13 and developed with a post-2005 designer, has faced criticism even before its launch. Defined as "a girl constantly 'generating herself'," KeyA represents an attempt at innovation with a cyber-mechanical aesthetic. However, online discussions have questioned its design originality and resemblance to the designer, with many comments expressing confusion or deeming it unsuitable for Pop Mart's brand.
The challenges faced by these two new IPs indicate that creating a hit now requires a delicate balance of distinctive design, emotional resonance, and strategic marketing, rather than merely increasing the frequency of new releases.
Historically, Pop Mart's major successes, from MOLLY in 2016 to SKULLPANDA in 2020 and the globally popular LABUBU since 2024, have generated massive market excitement. These blockbuster IPs cemented the company's industry leadership but also created pressure to find the next big hit. Notably, Pop Mart's top five revenue-generating IPs, each bringing in over 1 billion yuan, were all launched between 2016 and 2020, highlighting the lack of a new super-hit in nearly five years.
Financial data from the first half of 2025 shows that THE MONSTERS series, which includes LABUBU, generated approximately 4.814 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 34.7% of total company revenue. This underscores a high dependency on a few top-performing IPs.
In response, Pop Mart has accelerated its IP launch strategy, increasing the number of new IPs released annually from 29 in 2024 to 57 in 2025. However, this rapid pace risks new products being either too generic to stand out or too niche to achieve broad appeal. As founder Wang Ning once explained, MOLLY's success lay in its "emptiness," allowing users to project their own emotions onto it. Recent IPs like "After-School Merodi" may lack distinctiveness, while KeyA's specific design could limit its emotional versatility.
Simultaneously, while new IPs struggle, an upcoming collaboration between THE MONSTERS and Hello Kitty has generated significant pre-launch buzz, even boosting sales of a Miniso hair accessory. This contrast between strong legacy IPs and uncertain new launches has contributed to stock price volatility following the 2025 peak, raising questions about sustainable growth.
After a period of explosive growth fueled by LABUBU—with revenue surging over 200% year-on-year to approximately 13.876 billion yuan and net profit nearly 400% in H1 2025—the market anticipates a normalization of growth rates. Analysts, such as Lina Yan from HSBC Global Research, suggest that while LABUBU's hyper-growth will fade, Pop Mart's platform strength remains, with 2026 being a year of "re-basing." Conversely, Bernstein has issued two short-seller reports since October 2025, setting a target price of HK$225.
Underlying these divergent views are shifts in consumer behavior and industry dynamics. Consumers are becoming more rational, with many participating in a "play-to-sustain" model, trading existing collectibles to fund new purchases, which can reduce willingness to buy untested new IPs. Competition is also intensifying, with more brands and channels raising the bar for design originality. Furthermore, the market is transitioning from growth-driven expansion to competition for existing customers. While the Chinese collectible toy market is projected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR exceeding 20%, no single brand can rely on past success.
Pop Mart's upcoming financial results will be closely watched for short-term performance. Regardless of the figures, the company faces a long-term challenge: consistently developing new IPs that capture public sentiment and achieve commercial scale in a post-LABUBU era. The answer to this challenge will likely shape Pop Mart's trajectory for the next five years.