Overnight Market Highlights: March 21 – Trump Weighs Phased Military De-escalation in Iran, Gold Posts Largest Weekly Drop in 43 Years, Traders Turn Bullish on Dollar for First Time This Year

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Market Summary U.S. stocks fell for the fourth consecutive week on March 21, with the Dow and Nasdaq nearing correction territory. Top 20 U.S. stocks by trading volume: Regulators are investigating safety risks of Tesla's Full Self-Driving system. Popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks mostly declined: Kingsoft Cloud dropped 9.11%, XPeng fell 8.36%. Oil: Brent crude closed at its highest level since 2022 as Middle East tensions show no signs of easing. European stocks extended losses for a third week amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns. Gold recorded its largest weekly decline in 43 years.

Macro Developments The White House stated Trump remains focused on achieving "total" victory in Iran. Trump indicated he is considering a "gradual reduction" of military operations against Iran and downplayed U.S. responsibility for escorting ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. announced the initial release of 45 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve. S&P upgraded Ireland's credit rating to AA+ with a stable outlook. U.S. authorities are investigating potential links between Colombia's president and drug traffickers. The U.S. is evaluating plans to seize Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub and has deployed Marines to the Middle East. ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated the central bank can act swiftly if needed to address inflation risks. Trump rejected calls for a ceasefire with Iran, asserting the Strait of Hormuz would "restore itself." Trump said U.S. and Israeli objectives are largely aligned. Trump declared: "I don't want a ceasefire" in the conflict with Iran. Trump declined to comment on reports regarding Iran's Kharg Island. An Indian gas carrier is preparing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues attacks against Gulf states, with Trump criticizing NATO allies as "cowardly." Iran is reportedly unwilling to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz while under U.S. attack. The White House unveiled a legislative framework for AI regulation, proposing standardized rules and limiting state-level oversight.

Corporate News A jury found Elon Musk defrauded Twitter investors, potentially facing billions in damages. Super Micro Computer board member Yixian Liao resigned. SoftBank plans to build a $500 billion AI data center in Ohio. Nvidia paid $17 billion in U.S. taxes, ranking as the world's top corporate taxpayer.

Market Commentary S&P 500 ETF rose in after-hours trading following Trump's comments about scaling back military operations. U.S. Treasury markets maintained losses after a sell-off, though block trades showed bargain hunting. Geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand, with traders turning bullish on the dollar for the first time this year. Bank of America warned that prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could heighten global recession risks. The S&P 500 Industrial Index approached correction territory as Iran conflict raised growth concerns. Dallas Fed noted that extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would impact global GDP. Soaring oil prices have upended bond market bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts by 2026. The ECB has reportedly surveyed banks about the impact of the Iran conflict on clients and operations.

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